The Reserve Bank of Australia shifts to a hawkish stance: the logic behind Australia's gold price breaking through $4,200

The market today迎来 a critical turning point. A decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia is reshaping the global commodity price landscape, with Australia’s gold performance being the most notable.

Reserve Bank of Australia Maintains Status Quo but Signals Hawkish Stance

At its latest meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate at 3.60%, a seemingly calm decision with underlying implications. The central bank’s wording has shifted clearly towards a hawkish tone, warning that strong domestic demand is pushing up inflationary pressures and hinting at the possibility of further tightening in the future, including the potential for additional rate hikes. This shift breaks the previous market expectation of a global easing cycle by central banks.

As a result, the Australian dollar against the US dollar has risen significantly, currently trading at 0.6646, up 0.40%. The strengthening of the Australian dollar has directly driven a rebound in Australian gold prices—gold has climbed back above $4200, currently at $4205 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.35%. This reflects market expectations of the Australian dollar’s appreciation and a revival of safe-haven demand.

Gold and Silver Rise Simultaneously, Market Sentiment Subtle

Precious metals are performing strongly overall, with silver performing particularly well, up 1.09% to $58.78 per ounce, just a step away from its all-time high. The rally stems from conflicting market views on the Federal Reserve’s policy path—on one hand, expectations of a rate-cut cycle; on the other, concerns that so-called “hawkish rate cuts” (cutting rates while maintaining cautious guidance) will continue to suppress the US dollar and US Treasury yields, thereby inversely supporting precious metals.

US Stocks and Employment Data as Short-term Variables

The three major stock index futures are diverging, with Nvidia’s stock rising 1.63%, supported by news that Trump approved its export of H200 AI chips to China. Meanwhile, Tesla declined slightly by 0.92%. At 23:00 tonight, the US will release the JOLTS job openings data, with market expectations that October’s job openings will reach 7.2 million. The strength or weakness of this data will directly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy, which in turn will impact short-term trends in Australian gold prices and other commodities.

Worries Over Excess Supply in Energy Markets Intensify

A oil field in Iraq, accounting for 0.5% of global daily production, has resumed operations, exacerbating concerns about sufficient supply in the crude oil market. WTI crude oil fell 0.12% to $58.77 per barrel, Brent crude dropped 0.19% to $62.40 per barrel, continuing to be under pressure. In contrast to the rise in precious metals, the weakness in oil prices reflects market caution about global growth prospects.