Collective efforts in reverse hedging assets: When will Bitcoin break free from the $90,000 dilemma?

Subtle Divergence Between Precious Metals and Crypto Markets

Friday’s market painted an intriguing picture: gold and silver quickly broke out after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, with silver surging 5% to reach a historic high of $64; gold approached $4,300, up over 1%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovered around $87,650, with a 24-hour decline of -0.18%, clearly not benefiting from this wave of “de-dollarization.”

Behind this contrast lies the deeper logic of the gradual “divergence” between crypto assets and traditional financial markets. Wintermute Trading Strategist De Maere pointed out that over the past year, Bitcoin outperformed Nasdaq on only 18% of macro event trading days. The pattern of “stock rebound, crypto decline” has become the norm, indicating that the market has fully digested rate cut expectations, and the marginal easing policy’s support for digital assets has noticeably weakened. Investors’ focus is shifting from Federal Reserve policies to regulatory prospects, which could become the key variable in the next phase.

Opportunities from Weakening Dollar and Breakout of Falling Wedge

The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest since mid-October, opening room for gold and silver to rise. From a technical perspective, the dollar previously strengthened within a falling wedge and successfully broke upward, triggering a series of sell-offs in Bitcoin, with declines reaching 36.22%. The downtrend was only halted when prices found support above $80,000.

Now, the situation has reversed—the dollar is weakening but has not triggered a corresponding rebound in Bitcoin. Ethereum is at $2.95K, down -0.36% in 24 hours, and altcoins are performing even weaker, with ADA(ADA) and Avalanche(AVAX) falling about 1.79% and 0.90%, respectively, clearly not following the mainstream rebound. This underperformance reflects a significant lack of bullish momentum.

Diminished Selling Pressure and Structural Turning Point

Despite the overall weak market sentiment, positive signals are emerging. Data analysis firm Swissblock observed that the second wave of selling was weaker than the first, with selling pressure not intensifying, indicating signs of stabilization. Bitcoin is gradually building a “higher low” structure above $80,000, with daily charts showing increasing market acceptance of the $90,000 level.

From a weekly perspective, the persistent upper wicks during the rebound indicate ongoing selling pressure, with the $90,000 key level becoming a battleground for bulls and bears. However, this also suggests that the market is gradually digesting this level, laying the groundwork for a future breakout.

Four-Hour Chart: Early Signs of an Ascending Triangle

The most actionable signal comes from the four-hour timeframe. Bitcoin may currently be forming an ascending triangle—previous support levels have transformed into resistance, roughly around $93,961, forming the horizontal resistance line of the pattern.

Once this resistance is broken, the next major resistance zone points below $100,000. The previous high of $99,939 is especially critical and likely to become the short-term target for bulls. The formation of this pattern provides traders with a clear technical reference for seeking a rebound opportunity.

Two Diverging Paths: Bullish and Bearish

There are two very different interpretations of the current situation:

Bullish Logic: The recent higher lows structure provides technical support, with short-term charts showing a clear upward framework, and the downward momentum lacking sustainability.

Bearish Logic: Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and gold and silver breaking out, Bitcoin still shows weakness, and the lack of upward momentum hints at structural weakness.

For bulls, the key is to seize short-term rebound opportunities. The formation of the four-hour ascending triangle offers clear entry and stop-loss points, and a breakout could lead to a more definite upward move. For long-term investors, close attention should be paid to whether Bitcoin can truly break free from the “lonely rally” under favorable macro conditions.