2024 Investor Must-Read: US CPI Release Time, Interpretation Logic, and Market Opportunities

Why Keep an Eye on the US CPI Release? How It Affects Your Investments

If you want to optimize your asset allocation in 2024, you can’t ignore the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). This indicator may seem dull, but it is a key hub that links global asset prices.

Simply put: US CPI release → Market pricing inflation expectations → Federal Reserve decision signals → Stock, USD, commodities fluctuate. One data release can trigger intense adjustments within hours. That’s why Wall Street traders treat CPI release days as a battlefield.

2024 US CPI Release Schedule (Taiwan Time)

The US CPI release schedule is very stable—announced on the first business day or the closest business day of each month, but the exact time varies due to daylight saving time.

First half of the year (DST): 8:30 PM; Second half (Standard Time): 9:30 PM

The specific schedule is as follows:

What’s the logic behind this schedule? The US CPI release must come before the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) focuses on the PCE data, which is more critical for policy. Markets tend to react more sensitively to the earlier-released data. So even though PCE ultimately guides Fed decisions, the CPI remains a signal for global investors to position ahead of time.

Master 3 Key Indicators, and You’ll Lead 80% of Retail Investors

There are many inflation indicators out there, but investors should focus on only three.

( CPI vs Core CPI: What’s the difference?

Imagine store shelves. CPI measures all goods’ price changes, including the most volatile items like food and energy. Core CPI excludes these two, focusing on other goods and services.

Why distinguish these? Because food and energy prices are heavily affected by weather, geopolitical conflicts, and external shocks, which can create false signals. Core CPI provides a more stable reflection of underlying inflation pressures.

) CPI vs PCE: Why does the Fed prefer PCE?

Both indicators measure inflation, but their calculation methods differ—CPI uses a fixed basket with Laspeyres weighting, while PCE uses a chain-weighted approach with a dynamic basket.

In simple terms, PCE captures substitution effects. For example, if oil prices surge, consumers might switch to natural gas or electricity, automatically reducing the weight of oil in the basket. This “peak-shaving” feature makes PCE more accurately reflect actual consumer behavior, which is why the Fed trusts PCE data more for decision-making.

Monthly Growth Rate vs Yearly Growth Rate: Why do investors only watch the annual rate?

The annual rate compares to the same period last year, automatically eliminating seasonal fluctuations and showing a more stable trend. Monthly changes are more volatile and can cause short-term noise. Therefore, investors mainly track the US CPI and PCE annual growth rates.

Breakdown of US CPI Components: Find the True Culprits of Inflation

CPI isn’t a static indicator; it’s composed of weighted sub-items. Data from late 2023 shows:

• Housing (including rent): 30–40%, the largest share
• Food & beverages: 13–15%, second largest
• Education & communication: 6–7%
• Energy: 6–8%
• Medical care: 7–9%
• Transportation services: 5–6%
• New cars: 3–5%, used cars: 2–3%
• Recreation & entertainment: 3–5%
• Clothing: 2–3%

What does this structure tell us? Housing is the biggest driver of inflation, followed by food. So, when tracking US CPI in 2024, focus on rent trends and food prices.

How Will US CPI Move After the 2024 Release? Three Variables Decide the Year

Variable 1: The “Overpromise” Trap of the US Presidential Election

2024 is an election year, with results announced in November. Regardless of the party elected, campaign promises often exceed realistic capabilities. Coupled with the current international environment, candidates tend to externalize domestic conflicts—tough foreign policies, rising trade protectionism, and accelerated de-globalization. This directly raises import costs, ultimately passing onto consumer prices. In other words, the election could be a structural obstacle preventing CPI from falling significantly in 2024.

Variable 2: Fed’s Rate Cut Expectations

According to CME Group futures data, markets expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 6 basis points (150 bps) by the end of 2024. This reflects market belief that US CPI will trend downward throughout 2024. But the key is the “pace of rate cuts”—if CPI rebounds more than expected, the Fed might slow down rate reductions, putting pressure on risk assets like stocks.

Variable 3: The Red Sea Crisis and Its Impact on Global Logistics

Since December 2023, Houthi attacks on the Red Sea route have forced ships to reroute, doubling shipping costs on the Asia-Europe route. While the immediate impact on container freight rates is limited, regional logistics disruptions will eventually push up consumer goods costs. This is a black swan risk worth watching in 2024.

Looking at 2024 from History: What the Last Three Decades of Inflation Cycles Tell Us

Over the past 30 years, the US experienced four major CPI downtrend cycles, each linked to economic crises:

1. July 1990 – March 1991: Savings & Loan crisis + Gulf War oil shock
2. September 2000 – October 2001: Dot-com bubble burst + 9/11 attacks
3. January 2008 – June 2009: Subprime mortgage crisis
4. March 2020 and beyond: COVID-19 pandemic → economic stagnation → CPI plummeted → Fed unleashed massive liquidity → CPI surged until June 2022 → then gradually declined

The fourth cycle is the most noteworthy. During the pandemic, global logistics froze, causing CPI to drop rapidly. But after the Fed’s large-scale stimulus, CPI soared again. By late 2022, as the pandemic eased and logistics normalized, CPI gradually fell.

What does this show? Global logistics conditions have a far greater impact on US inflation than we might think. The 2024 Red Sea crisis is a reminder that regional logistics disruptions could trigger price increases.

US CPI Outlook for 2024: Fundamentals Are the Deciding Factor

IMF forecasts:

• US GDP growth of 2.1% in 2024, slowing to 1.7% in 2025
• Global inflation rate of 5.8% in 2024, 4.4% in 2025
• Eurozone growth of only 0.9% in 2024, significantly weaker than the US

The US economy remains relatively resilient, meaning US CPI is unlikely to fall very low. Plus, crude oil inventories are currently declining (supporting oil prices), and commodities already fell sharply in the first half of 2023 (raising the base for 2024). This makes it hard for US CPI to continue dropping rapidly.

Overall judgment: US CPI may bottom in Q1 2024, rebound in Q2, then decline again in H2. The full year will mainly trend downward, but with limited downside space.

Investor Action Checklist

• Mark the US CPI release dates on your calendar, especially the release times each month
• Focus on the trends of food and housing, as they determine CPI movement
• Watch geopolitical conflicts’ impact on logistics costs
• The Fed’s rate cut pace directly affects US stock valuations; CPI data is key to judging the rate cut progress
• Prepare for increased volatility in risk assets if CPI exceeds expectations

Although the US CPI is just a monthly data point, it links global asset pricing, central bank policies, and investment opportunities. Mastering the timing and interpretation of US CPI releases is an essential skill for investment decisions in 2024.