Can TPU exports reshape the landscape? Alphabet advances toward being one of the top ten companies by market value

AI industry competition is fierce, and Alphabet is rapidly rising with its self-developed chip technology. The parent company’s stock price continues to climb, with a market capitalization approaching $4 trillion, making it a focal point among the top ten companies by market value worldwide. Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis report indicates that if Alphabet successfully sells its自主開發的TPU chips on a large scale, it could transform from a pure cost center into a major profit source, thereby shaking up the long-standing monopoly of NVIDIA in the AI chip market.

Commercialization of TPU Brings Profit Turning Point

According to Morgan Stanley’s forecast, by 2027, shipping 500,000 to 1 million TPU units externally is not an impossible goal for Alphabet. This will enable TPU to evolve from a purely internal dedicated chip into an indispensable strategic commodity in the era of global computing power shortages. Meta is negotiating to purchase billions of dollars worth of Alphabet’s dedicated AI chips. If this cooperation is achieved, it will significantly boost Alphabet’s cloud business and chip sales revenue, while directly reducing NVIDIA’s market share in the AI acceleration card field.

Based on the analysis, every sale of 500,000 TPU units by Alphabet will drive approximately an 11% growth in its cloud revenue and about a 3% increase in earnings per share. In the context of continuously expanding global computing power demand and increasing capital expenditure, the dual drive of cloud services and AI hardware will further enhance market valuation recognition for Alphabet.

Technological Accumulation Enhances TPU Competitiveness

For years, Alphabet has invested heavily in TPU R&D, optimizing software and ensuring compatibility with existing systems. This is the core competitive advantage that enables TPU to achieve large-scale external sales. In contrast, while NVIDIA maintains platform versatility and technological leadership, Alphabet’s ability to customize for specific workloads and its complete software ecosystem make it a formidable competitor that cannot be ignored.

Reshaping the AI Chip Market Landscape

Currently, the AI chip market is highly concentrated, with NVIDIA holding over 90% market share and reaching a peak market value of $5 trillion. However, as tech giants like Alphabet open up their self-developed chip sales and actively seek cloud and AI customer orders, NVIDIA’s market dominance is being substantively challenged. Market funds are gradually shifting toward Alphabet, which possesses the “model + chip” synergy advantage and greater growth potential.

Stock Price Performance Reflects Market Shift

This year, Alphabet’s stock performance has been outstanding, with an increase of over 70% year-to-date, making it the most dazzling winner among tech giants. This is attributed to the successful launch of large language models like Gemini 3 and the heated expectations for TPU exports. In comparison, NVIDIA’s stock has retreated about 11% since November, though it still maintains double-digit growth for the year. Capital flow has gradually tilted toward Alphabet.

Variables in Future AI Infrastructure Competition

In the global AI infrastructure race, Alphabet is seen as the emerging leader with the most explosive potential. Whether it can reshape the market ecosystem through TPU commercialization strategies will become an important indicator for the next stage of AI industry development and will directly influence the rankings of the top ten companies by market value.