Why is gold rising? Why did the price break through $4,000 and continue to go higher?

Late 2025 marks a shocking period for the gold market as prices continue to rise steadily, surpassing the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce. On October 20, 2025, a historic milestone was reached as gold prices hit a new high of $4,181 per ounce. The question floating in the market is: Why is gold surging like this? More importantly, will it continue to rise or stop here?

Why is gold rising? What are the reasons? There are several causes.

The acceleration of gold prices is not accidental or caused by a single factor, but rather the result of multiple pressures converging in the global economy.

The trade war has prompted investors to rush into buying gold.

Trade tensions have become markedly heightened, especially when President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025. Such moves create widespread uncertainty in the global economy, while China responds by expanding controls on exports of rare minerals and technology. In this situation, investors seek safe assets, and gold is the top choice.

Central banks are buying gold in unprecedented amounts.

The most significant structural factor is the massive purchase of gold by foreign central banks. From 2023 to 2025, central banks worldwide accumulated over 1,000 tons of net gold each year for three consecutive years, continuing into 2025. This movement stems from a trend of diversifying away from the US dollar (De-dollarization). After the asset freeze of the Russian central bank in 2023, countries became aware of the risks of over-reliance on a single currency. As a result, global gold reserves reached a multi-decade high of approximately 36,699 tons.

Lower interest rates make gold more attractive.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun a cycle of interest rate cuts, reducing by 0.25% in September 2025, with market expectations of further reductions in the coming months. This sequence weakens the dollar, which is positive for gold prices. According to economic principles, gold prices move inversely to real interest rates. When interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold (which yields no interest) decreases accordingly.

The BRICS group prepares to challenge the dollar with a gold-backed currency.

Market rumors suggest that BRICS is preparing to launch a digital currency backed by gold for transactions among member countries. This challenges the dollar-led global financial structure. Such moves spark additional interest in gold.

Leading financial institutions believe gold still has room to grow.

When global financial analysts raise their targets, it indicates strong confidence in the continued expansion of gold prices.

Goldman Sachs has increased its target from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the main drivers are the massive demand from central banks and the inflow of funds through gold ETFs. Moreover, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2025 forecast to $3,300 from the previous $2,890.

UBS initially expected gold to reach $3,500 by December 2025, citing that central banks worldwide are accumulating gold at their highest levels in recent history. UBS strategist Joni Teves notes that central banks added over 1,200 tons of gold in 2024 alone.

In Thailand: Gold may rise to 75,000-80,000 Baht.

If the forecasts from leading financial institutions materialize and gold reaches $4,900 per ounce, the price of 96.5% gold bars in Thailand could potentially soar to 75,000-80,000 Baht per baht weight within 2026, significantly higher than current levels.

Important warning: Factors that could cause gold prices to decline.

Although the outlook is bullish, certain situations could reverse the trend.

If US-China trade negotiations succeed and positive news emerges, the tensions driving investors to buy gold may ease, causing prices to unexpectedly reverse.

After a strong 8-week rally, investors might start taking profits, which could pressure prices, especially if technical signals indicate overbought conditions.

If the dollar strengthens, gold could be pressured downward, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

If inflation does not decrease as expected, the Fed may need to keep interest rates high longer than anticipated, which could weaken gold prices.

Gold trading strategies in the current situation

( Strategy 1: Wait for a correction to buy )Buy the Dip###

Prices may rise quickly, followed by a short-term correction. Wait for the price to pull back to support levels, such as $3,859 (October opening support) or $3,782.

Confirm with technical tools like RSI approaching 50 or MACD signaling a reversal.

Set stop-loss below the next key support at $3,750, with profit targets at previous highs or next resistance levels.

( Strategy 2: Test the Breakout point

Once the price breaks above $4,000, it may retest the previous resistance at $3,980–$4,000.

Wait for this resistance to hold )price bounce### and buy when bullish candles appear.

Place stop-loss below support at $3,950, with a target of $4,100 or higher.

( Strategy 3: Use Fibonacci Retracement

Draw Fibonacci from the low )around $3,500### to the high ($4,059).

Look for buy signals at the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels, which are natural support zones.

Enter buy positions when the price approaches these levels and shows reversal signs.

Summary: Gold still has room to rise due to multiple factors.

Why is gold rising? The answer is straightforward: trade wars, changing international structures, interest rate cuts, and massive central bank purchases—all point in the same direction: gold has further to go.

Leading financial institutions forecast that before the end of 2026, gold could reach $4,900, which implies that in Thailand, the price of 96.5% gold bars could be in the range of 75,000–80,000 Baht, making it a plausible target.

However, volatility, profit-taking, or geopolitical news could cause fluctuations along the way. But if the main trend remains bullish and the overall direction is upward, trading gold now requires good timing and patience, as waiting for optimal entry points often yields better returns than rushing in impulsively.