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**AUD/USD Bears Face Headwinds as Policy Divergence Caps Losses Near 0.6630**
The Australian Dollar has been under sustained pressure for the fourth consecutive trading day, with AUD/USD hovering around the mid-0.6630 region. While negative catalysts continue to mount, the pair's downside appears constrained by diverging monetary policy expectations between key central banks.
**Economic Headwinds Pressure the AUD**
Two major economic disappointments have weighed heavily on the currency pair. Last week's mixed employment figures from Australia initially sparked concern, while Monday's Chinese macroeconomic data released fresh worries about Asia's largest economy. Combined with a broader risk-off sentiment rippling through global equities, these factors have created a challenging environment for the relatively risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair, which typically underperforms when investors favor safety.
**RBA Hawkishness Provides Support**
Despite the bearish backdrop, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is delivering a critical counterweight. Governor Michele Bullock signaled last week that the easing cycle may be complete, suggesting rate cuts are unlikely and potentially hinting at future tightening if circumstances demand it. This hawkish messaging has created a floor for AUD losses.
**Fed Expectations Lift USD Weakness**
Simultaneously, the US Dollar has entered a sustained weakness phase, with the USD Index trading near its lowest point since early October. Growing market conviction about further Federal Reserve rate cuts, combined with speculation around a dovish successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has undermined USD strength and supported the AUD/USD pair.
**Waiting for NFP Clarity**
With the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls report on the calendar, traders appear reluctant to commit to aggressive positions. The absence of fresh directional conviction reflects typical pre-data caution. Until October's employment figures arrive and sentiment clarifies, the AUD/USD pair is likely to maintain its current consolidation pattern around the low-0.6600s range.
**The Bottom Line**
The technical picture remains murky, but near-term support around mid-0.6630 appears solid given the policy divergence backdrop. Confirmation of deeper losses would require decisive NFP weakness or a significant shift in Fed rate-cut expectations.