Ethereum hovers around $2,850: a tug-of-war between large holders reducing holdings and accumulation addresses' cost basis

Ethereum’s recent trend has been somewhat awkward — large holders with 10K-100K ETH have collectively sold off 150K ETH over the past four days, causing concern among many about whether this rebound can hold. On the other hand, accumulation addresses (wallets that have never sold in history) are quietly holding around $2,860, hinting at potential support being brewed.

Why are large holders reducing their positions now?

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, this wave of large holder selling is not surprising. ETH is currently fluctuating around $2.95K, right at the cost basis zone of $2,900. Investors have already recorded over $1 billion in losses in the past week (based on Santiment’s realized profit/loss indicator), with most selling pressure coming from those trying to cut losses or preserve capital.

More painfully, Ethereum ETFs extended their outflow streak to seven days on Wednesday, with total outflows exceeding $1 billion. When big funds are moving out, retail investors naturally become nervous too.

Will accumulation addresses save the day?

Historical data shows that whenever ETH price approaches the cost basis of accumulation addresses, rebounds are often seen. This time may be no different.

Currently, ETH has found initial support around $2,850, after facing strong resistance at $3,100 previously. If this support holds, it could attract new buying interest.

From liquidation data, Ethereum recorded $215 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours (including $186 million long liquidations), indicating that much of the leveraged positions in the market have been wiped out, leaving behind relatively healthy positions.

What does technical analysis say?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below neutral levels, and the Stochastic indicator is approaching oversold territory — typically suggesting some room for a short-term rebound.

Looking upward, if ETH can break through the key resistance at $3,100, the next target could be $3,470, but only if it clears the pressure of the 20-day exponential moving average. Downward, if support at $2,850 breaks, it could slide toward $2,380.

The current situation is like a tug-of-war — whales are pressuring with reductions, while accumulation addresses are defending. Who will gain the upper hand depends on the market performance in the coming days.