12.19 Market Scan: Technical Analysis of the Four Major Assets, US Dollar Index K-Line Chart Indicates an Imminent Direction Choice

Market Background: Data-Driven Risk Appetite Rebound

Micron Technology reported impressive earnings after hours, with Q1 results exceeding expectations, and Q2 revenue, gross margin, and EPS forecasts all significantly surpassing market estimates. More importantly, the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure to $20 billion (from $18 billion), reflecting sustained strong demand for memory chips and alleviating concerns about potential slowdown in data center investments. Meanwhile, the US CPI for November declined month-over-month, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to continue easing policies. Additionally, with the Bank of Japan’s rate hike policy now certain, overall market risk sentiment is expected to improve.

USD/JPY: Consolidation with Breakout Potential Brewing

This Friday, USD/JPY rose 0.38%, reaching a high of 156.44 intraday, the highest in nearly a week. The 155.0 level holds significant importance—it is both the support line from the May 13 high and a key level for short-term stabilization of the current downtrend. If USD/JPY holds above 155.0, room for a rebound opens, with potential challenges toward 156.20 and even 158.0. Conversely, if it breaks below 154.50 support, the next test will be at 152.0.

Looking at the USD index candlestick chart, this currency pair is oscillating within the 155-157 range, lacking a clear short-term direction, but upward momentum has not fully dissipated.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 155.0, 152.0, 150.0
• Resistance: 156.20, 158.0, 160.0

EUR/USD: Critical Level Reached, Downside Risks Rise

EUR/USD remains above 1.1700, but the three-day decline warrants caution. The 1.1700 level has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, and the AO momentum indicator shows downward strength is building, indicating increased downside risk.

If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1700 effectively, it could test 1.1630 and even 1.1500. However, if it stabilizes above 1.1700 and further consolidates above 1.1630, the medium-term target could still point toward 1.2.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1500
• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2000

Gold: 4350 USD as the Central Level of the Uptrend

Gold held steady above 4300 USD this Friday, with the daily candlestick forming a doji, indicating a potential short-term turning point. Currently, gold faces resistance at 4350 USD; a sustained rally requires a clear breakout above this level.

If the rebound is rejected below 4350 USD, gold may retrace to test 4220 USD. However, a successful break above 4350 USD could lead to further challenges of previous highs at 4381 USD and the psychological level at 4400 USD.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 4300, 4220, 4160
• Resistance: 4380, 4400, 4500

Micron Technology (MU.US): Uptrend Intact, Clear Short-term Breakout Signal

Despite a pullback from highs on Thursday, Micron still gained 10.21% in a single day, reaching a new high of $263.65. More importantly, the stock remains within a clear upward trend channel, and the breakout above the recent high suggests a potential move out of the previous consolidation range, with room for further rebound.

If Micron can hold above the key support at 245.0, the next target could be $280. However, a break below 220.0 support would raise concerns about a trend reversal.

Technical reference points:

• Support: 245, 220, 200
• Resistance: 264, 280, 300

Summary

Currently, the four major assets are in different technical states. USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at critical junctures where direction needs to be clarified; gold faces clear resistance constraints; Micron continues its strength driven by earnings catalysts. Investors should closely monitor support and resistance levels, as these will determine the subsequent trend clarity.