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2026 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook: Bullish Phase Dominance
Early to Mid-Year Bullish Expectations: Driven by the Bitcoin halving cycle, institutional capital influx through ETFs (such as BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.), and geopolitical risk aversion demands, market sentiment remains optimistic. Bitcoin's price peaked at approximately $126,000 during the year, demonstrating bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment and Structural Support: As of September 2025, the Fear & Greed Index indicates a neutral to slightly optimistic stance. Regulatory improvements (such as the US approving compliant products for Solana, XRP, etc.) and on-chain data like active addresses and capital inflows suggest early to mid-stage bull market characteristics.
End-of-Year Bearish Signs Emerge
Price Corrections and Failed Predictions: Although institutions initially predicted Bitcoin would break $200,000 at the start of the year, the actual trend fell short—by year-end, Bitcoin's price retreated to around $88,000. This reflects insufficient upward strength and weakening sustainability, partly due to macroeconomic uncertainties (such as high interest rates and a strong US dollar) and cautious investor sentiment.
Increasing Risk Factors: Global inflation, regulatory policy fluctuations, and the high valuation correction risks in traditional financial markets (like US stocks) have intensified cryptocurrency market volatility. Altcoins underperform and may trigger further declines at any time due to negative news.
Overall Assessment
Based on the current market conditions (December 2025), the crypto market leans more towards a bull market adjustment phase rather than a strong bull run. However, close monitoring of macroeconomic indicators (such as interest rate changes) and on-chain data (like miner holdings and trading volume) is necessary to confirm trend continuation.