#ETF与衍生品 Hyperliquid has fallen from 80% to 20%. On the surface, this appears to be due to intensified competition in the derivatives track, but the core issues exposed by on-chain data warrant attention.

Breaking it down: the first phase of dominance relied on early-mover incentives and UI experience, which have now been replicated by platforms like Lighter. The real turning point is the strategic shift—from B2C vertical integration to B2B infrastructure models, making short-term liquidity pressure inevitable.

But there is a signal worth tracking: the growth potential of HIP-3 custom markets. Currently, applications like TradeXYZ and Hyena Trade are already deployed based on HIP-3, and it is expected to become a significant trading volume growth point by 2026. The key lies in the synergy between Builder Codes and HIP-3—any front-end integration can immediately access all HIP-3 markets, creating genuine network effects.

From the flow of funds, a considerable portion of trading volume flowing into Lighter is driven by incentive-motivated liquidity employment, which is expected to adjust after TGE. In contrast, Hyperliquid's transformation, although short-term painful, may have a more solid long-term infrastructure moat than pure product competition.

My judgment is: this is not a top-out but a reconstruction. Continue to observe the developer onboarding speed of the HIP-3 ecosystem and the proportion of derivatives market trading volume, as these will be key indicators for signaling a reversal.