#加密行情预测 #Crypto Market Forecast

As consensus approaches unanimity, has the inflection point already begun to emerge in the shadows?

Market sentiment is like a drawn bow—when the vast majority are pessimistic, it often signals the night before momentum accumulates and the direction quietly shifts. Recently, the community has been flooded with “generally bearish” narratives, but history repeatedly plays out the same script: extreme consensus often signals a reversal.

Rational Review of the Cycle Position
From a cyclical perspective, early November marks the beginning of a new phase in the market, which means a complete trend reversal may require more time to brew. In the short term, there may still be pressure to test lows repeatedly. However, sentiment indicators are approaching extreme levels; blindly following panic could cause you to miss the key window for strategic positioning.

Current Strategy: Cautious but Not Pessimistic
“Caution in a bear market” is a survival rule, but “excessive pessimism” may already be a lagging sentiment. The market bottoms out in despair and rises amid divergence. When most people choose to wait or exit, asset prices may actually approach a phase bottom zone.

My Operations and Thoughts

1. Gradual Positioning: Instead of pursuing “precise bottom-fishing,” adopt a tiered order placement strategy around key support levels to reduce risk at single points.
2. Watch for Divergence Signals: Some mainstream coins have already shown daily-level divergence between price and momentum, which often indicates waning downward momentum.
3. Keep Ammo Ready: Control positions below 50% to maintain flexibility in responding to extreme volatility.

Should I buy the dip now or wait?
For long-term investors, the current position already offers dollar-cost averaging opportunities; for short-term traders, a clearer reversal structure (such as volume breakout above key moving averages) is still needed. The market is never short of opportunities; what’s missing is the calm eye to see through the noise.

True turning points often occur when consensus breaks down. When most hesitate “to wait for lower prices,” the market may already be sprouting in the shadows.

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Note: The above is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks are always present; decisions should be made independently.