As of 2025-12-30 19:00 (around New Year's Day 12.30-1.5), the probability of TRUMP plummeting is approximately 70%, and PUMP about 75%; both are high-volatility Meme/low-utility tokens. Coupled with year-end liquidity exhaustion, selling pressure, and regulatory risks, sudden drops of 15%-30% in a single day are likely.

1. Probability of Crash and Core Basis (Golden Ten Criteria + On-Chain Data)

- TRUMP (≈70%):
1. Narrative overextension + no fundamentals, dropped 94% from peak, only residual hype from celebrity promotion, no sustained buying.
2. Liquidity contraction: 24h volume around $5 million, large sell orders easily cause dumps; whales still hold large positions, unlocking sell pressure remains.
3. Regulatory and related risks: Political Meme regulation tightening, related project failures, executive turmoil, increasing panic.
4. Market correlation: BTC oscillates weakly, altcoin rotation wanes, funds withdraw from high-risk assets.
- PUMP (≈75%, slightly higher than TRUMP):
1. Greater sell pressure: whales transfer 3.8 billion tokens (≈$7.57 million) to exchanges, high risk of dumping.
2. Legal and confidence hits: Suspected insider trading expanded into lawsuits, buying momentum remains weak.
3. Worse liquidity: 24h volume around $16 million, insufficient depth, large slippage, easy to trigger stop-loss chains.
4. Technical breakdown: Long-term downtrend, open contracts decline, longs liquidation makes reversal difficult.

2. Timeline and Scenario Probabilities

- 12.30-1.1: 80% narrow-range oscillation + sudden sharp decline; extremely low liquidity, large orders easily trigger panic, TRUMP/PUMP may drop 15%-25% in a single day.
- 1.2-1.5: 70% continuation of decline; if BTC drops below $85,000, both may accelerate downward, TRUMP to $3.5-4, PUMP to $0.0012-0.0015; if rebound occurs, gains are limited and prone to fall back.

3. Key Risks and Trigger Signals (Golden Ten Focus)

1. Whale transfers: Check Etherscan for large withdrawals of TRUMP/PUMP to exchanges; immediate reduction of holdings upon appearance.
2. Capital flow: ETF net outflows continue, altcoin capital fleeing, reducing positions simultaneously.
3. Regulatory announcements: EU DAC8 1.1 takes effect, exchange delisting lists, clear positions immediately.
4. Technical breakdown: TRUMP drops below $4.5, PUMP below $0.0017, no rebound accelerates further.

4. Action Checklist (Executable)

1. Position: Total position ≤10%, no leverage, avoid chasing highs.
2. Take profit and stop loss: For TRUMP, take profit in stages at $4.9-5.1; stop loss immediately if below $4.5; for PUMP, take profit at $0.0019-0.0020; stop loss if below $0.0017.
3. Monitoring: Keep an eye on ETF capital flows, regulatory/exchange announcements; on-chain monitor whale address transfers, reduce holdings immediately if anomalies occur.