#预测市场 Whoa, is the prediction market being manipulated by AI-generated fake public opinion? This is more exciting than I imagined 😱

Imagine in 2028, a certain candidate suddenly skyrockets on Polymarket, prices soaring, CNN broadcasting 24/7, and no one knows if it's real intelligence or a big investor playing with fire. Democrats scream "manipulation," Republicans insist "free speech," and in the end, the truth remains elusive — isn’t this the grand show we love 🍿

The key point is, this has been happening since 1916! Over a hundred years ago, someone tried to manipulate the betting market by crashing the market. Now with AI, the difficulty has been drastically lowered to the point where even beginners can try. But here’s an interesting point — genuine manipulation costs are extremely high, and arbitrageurs will hedge aggressively, making prices impossible to hold. As long as liquidity is sufficient, manipulators are just throwing money away.

However, the current variable is — the boost from social media + TV news. Even short-term fluctuations, once they hit CNN headlines, can cause public opinion to explode. People start believing foreign forces are manipulating election outcomes, trust collapses instantly, and that’s the real destructive power 💣

I think the solution lies in: news organizations should not recklessly report on markets with low liquidity, prediction platforms need transparent monitoring of abnormal trades, policymakers should treat election market manipulation as illegal. Otherwise, this could really become a new tool for harvesting retail investors.

Prediction markets are inherently good; they can aggregate dispersed information and are more reliable than polls flooded by AI. The problem is, anywhere there’s money to be made, someone will try to cause trouble.