#美联储利率政策 The Federal Reserve's policy signals are becoming interesting. Milan has repeatedly stated that the "policy stance is too tight," coupled with the launch of reserve management purchase plans. This combination clearly indicates that the Fed is adjusting its posture on the path to a soft landing.

Key data point: an initial $40 billion in Treasury bond purchases, expected to continue until April 2026. This is not quantitative easing, but effectively shifts from balance sheet reduction to net injection, with similar effects. Coupled with the pricing of two more rate cuts next year in federal funds futures, market pricing is shifting towards a hawkish stance.

What does this mean on the chain? Improved liquidity expectations usually first reflect in macro asset pricing, then transmit to risk assets. Historically, during this window, institutions tend to pre-position. Focus on the accumulation strength of mainstream coins by whale addresses and changes in large contract holdings—usually, clear signals of fund movement can be seen two to four weeks before policy shifts.

However, one detail worth cautioning: Milan also mentioned early warning signals from the labor market. A more moderate policy environment does not mean the economic fundamentals are stable; volatility could be more intense under such circumstances. It is recommended to track the actual implementation pace of reserve growth rather than just the expectations.