On-chain monitoring has just detected an interesting operation: a top whale account is holding both positions—short BTC with 20x leverage (approximately $70.72 million in size), combined with an 18x leveraged long ETH hedge. The current overall unrealized loss is $240,000.

Seeing the term "unrealized loss," many people might instinctively think this is a failed bet. But looking deeper, the logic behind this operation is not that simple.

**This is more like a relative value strategy rather than a one-sided bearish bet.**

A careful breakdown reveals that the whale is actually betting on the relative strength of ETH compared to BTC. Recently, the Ethereum ecosystem’s Layer 2 scaling solutions have been gaining popularity, and the staking concept is also fermenting. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is clearly under macro interest rate pressures. From this perspective, simultaneously shorting BTC and going long ETH as a hedge indicates that his thinking isn’t simply "bearish," but rather a structural position adjustment.

**Leverage multiples do not represent directional expectations but risk tolerance.**

The 20x and 18x leverage are actually quite close, but one is short and the other is long. What does this imply? The whale might be predicting increased volatility in both assets, but has more confidence in ETH’s relative strength. Based on on-chain large holder data, recent accumulation speed of ETH whales has indeed started to surpass Bitcoin.

**What does a $240,000 unrealized loss mean within a position of around $70 million?**

This number sounds alarming, but from another perspective: $240,000 relative to a total position of over $70 million is less than 0.34%. This can essentially be understood as the cost of funding rate plus short-term volatility noise—possibly even the "insurance premium" the whale is willing to pay to maintain this hedge structure. The real key isn’t the current unrealized loss, but that once the ETH/BTC pair breaks through the critical level of 0.06, the entire portfolio could turn into explosive profits.

**What to watch in the market?**

From a macro perspective, although the timetable for rate cuts has been delayed, this expectation hasn’t disappeared; liquidity will eventually tilt toward risk assets. Smart money on-chain is quietly accumulating in the Ethereum ecosystem, and before the altcoin season arrives, there’s often a noticeable turning point in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.

Currently, market sentiment is mainly driven by capital flows into spot ETFs and short-term noise from geopolitical factors. But in the medium term, the real story is unfolding across three tracks: Layer 2 infrastructure, physical layer DePin, and the integration of AI + crypto.

The difference is here: those who only chase the trend and sell on dips see "whale unrealized losses" as a problem; but if you understand structure, track exchange rates, and observe on-chain fund footprints, you’ll find that smart money has already started paving the way for the next cycle.