2025-12-31 12:20:56

Recently, regarding the 2026 crypto market outlook, many people are still clinging to the old four-year cycle approach. But looking at the current data, the truth is actually quite sobering.

$BTC $ETH $BNB's future trajectory has already diverged into two completely different paths.

First, on the institutional side. The opening of Bitcoin ETFs has completely changed the game rules, with large funds like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds lining up to enter. Major institutions like Grayscale and Bitwise are collectively singing a different tune—no more fooling us with four-year cycles, the institutional era cycle has already become invalid. Coupled with the implementation of compliance frameworks like the US GENIUS Act and the EU’s MiCA, big money is now willing to put real cash into the market. In terms of price levels, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $86,000 and $92,000 in the short term, but once a correction occurs, the $75,000 level will be hard to break—this is the psychological barrier for institutions. Looking ahead, sustained capital inflows could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs and usher in a slow-paced, structural bull market.

On the other hand, the altcoin scene is completely different. Among the coins launched in 2025, 85% have directly broken down, with an average valuation plummeting by 71%. Early-stage VCs have already started cashing out, and retail investors are stuck at the top with no way out. The market no longer listens to stories; it’s now about real metrics—do you have actual revenue? How is user growth? This shift makes high-valuation, low-circulation projects increasingly unviable. The altcoin season is not coming back; the K-shaped divergence is already set in stone. Bitcoin is eating the meat, while other small coins can’t even get a sip of soup.

For retail investors, the survival rule for 2026 is simple: abandon the bad habit of chasing new hype, and focus on the real value of projects. Tracks like AI+Blockchain and RWA with practical applications are worth paying attention to, but stay far away from projects that hype wildly while their valuations are inflated.

The era of passive income is over; now, you need to rely on cognition to survive.

BTC-0.41%

ETH-0.1%

BNB0.53%

RWA4.9%

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LiquidationHunter

· 2h ago

85% decline in value—this data is truly astonishing. How many more times will the old tricks of early VC fleeing and retail investors taking over play out?

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RetiredMiner

· 2h ago

Four-year cycles should have died long ago; institutional entry is the game changer. Retail investors are still dreaming; the era of stories in the crypto world is over. 85% breakdown, this data is really incredible. Are people still bottom-fishing for shanzhai coins? RWA is the track for 2026; don't be fooled by air coins anymore. Bitcoin support is at 7.5K; this time, institutions are not here to play. That hits hard; the era of passive income has indeed passed.

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BearMarketMonk

· 2h ago

Those who have given up on the four-year cycle should now give up on illusions. This is the truth. --- 85% of projects are breaking below their IPO price, and VCs have already exited. Retail investors are still in a daze. --- It's good to say that you make a living through cognition, but most people don't even have that. --- Bitcoin has institutional support, so altcoins are just destined to be sacrificial lambs. That's the reality. --- Stories no longer sell at high prices; the market now demands real money. --- The era of altcoin season is truly over; this should have been clear long ago. --- Those who saw the K-shaped divergence early on have already rebalanced their portfolios. --- Is 75,000 a line of defense? Whether it breaks or not depends on what the institutions say. --- AI combined with blockchain is hot, but it depends on who is actually doing it, not just listening to stories. --- The era of earning passively while lying down is over, and the most frustrating part is that no one is willing to take over the position.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 2h ago

85% dip, VCs have already exited, retail investors are still buying the dip... This is the reality. Institutions are eating the meat while we drink the soup. The four-year cycle should have been abandoned long ago. That's right, now it really depends on whether the project has actual revenue. Just bragging no one believes anymore. BTC has indeed broken out, but this wave of altcoins really has no chance. The era of passive income is over; now you have to rely on your brains to make money.

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tokenomics_truther

· 2h ago

The four-year cycle should have expired long ago. Institutions entering the market still playing this game are really clueless. But honestly, can the $75,000 level hold? I’m skeptical. --- I'm used to 85% breakdowns, but I just worry about when those still hyping the "next hundredfold coin" will wake up. --- The crypto world is now all about perception, but most people are still relying on luck, and that’s the most painful part. --- I’ve been paying some attention to the RWA and AI sectors, but frankly, most projects aren’t valued that highly. --- The era of copycats is really over. Early followers are going to suffer big losses this time. --- Institutions take the big slices, retail investors get the leftovers—that’s the script for 2026, no surprises. --- After reading so many of these analysis articles, in the end, you still have to rely on your own judgment, or you’ll get caught off guard.

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