#美联储利率政策 Seeing the Fed's recent moves, what flashes through my mind are the pivotal moments of 2008 and 2020. A 25 basis point rate cut isn't big news, but this "hidden QE"—the reserve management purchase plan, initially set at $40 billion and continuing until April 2026—is the real signal.

History shows that when central banks shift from balance sheet reduction to net injections, it's often a precursor to market bottoms. I've experienced several cycles, and each time the logic is the same: policy environment shifts from tightening to easing, liquidity expectations improve, and risk assets begin to recover gradually. This time is no different.

The data is even more interesting. Three consecutive weeks of net inflows, especially the $796 million weekly inflow into the US market, indicate a shift in institutional investor sentiment. Bitcoin, with inflows of 27.7 billion (not as spectacular as last year's 41 billion), shows that short positions have been flowing out for two consecutive weeks—an subtle signal that shorts are surrendering. Ethereum's performance is even more notable, with a 148% increase in inflows, which I interpret as the market re-evaluating the infrastructure layer.

But I must be honest: after rate cuts, the market has shown weakness, and we've seen this divergence before. Similar phenomena occurred at the end of 2021 and mid-2022—"policy turning positive, but prices remaining weak." This isn't necessarily bad; it might actually mean that this rebound is built on a more solid foundation rather than just liquidity games.

The key is the sustainability of policy. If the Fed can indeed cut rates by another 50 basis points within the next nine months until 2026, that would form a clearer support cycle. But this depends on no new inflation shocks disrupting the rhythm. Historically, many policy expectations have fallen apart during implementation.

Currently, the situation is very delicate—not a confident bottoming, but a cautious optimism as the bottom gradually confirms.