MON – Growth prospects, vesting risk certificates, and key points to watch in 2025

Strong Momentum Following Mainnet Launch

Monad’s MON token has experienced positive momentum since its main infrastructure went live. Initial observations indicate a combination of a clear targeted distribution strategy, abundant liquidity on exchanges, and notable on-chain activity. Currently, MON is trading at $0.02 with a 24-hour increase of +7.88%, and 24-hour trading volume reaching $12.97M. However, figures such as the fully diluted valuation (FDV) now at $2.33B, along with an extended token unlock schedule, remain pressure factors to watch in the coming months.

Price Movements and Market Sentiment During the Launch Phase

Immediately after the mainnet announcement, MON experienced significant fluctuations in the initial trading sessions. The initial circulating supply created a sell-off effect at open, but buying demand quickly absorbed this pressure and pushed the price above the initial threshold. The 2025 market context shows many key assets struggling, yet MON continues to demonstrate resilience thanks to abundant liquidity and continuous on-chain activity.

Factors Supporting MON’s Uptrend

Token Structure and Distribution Strategy

A large portion of the supply was distributed via airdrops to hundreds of thousands of addresses, though not all received full allocations, creating a relatively stable initial holder base. The public sale attracted committed investors, helping to adjust price expectations during the launch phase. Most of the supply is currently under long-term (vesting) contracts, reducing immediate sell pressure from internal actors.

Wide Presence Across Trading Platforms

MON’s appearance on numerous leading exchanges, combined with active futures markets, provides traders with flexible tools. Deep order books and narrow spreads help absorb sudden sell pressure without disrupting the market. This liquidity is a key tool for stabilizing prices in the early days.

Active On-Chain Activity Demonstrates Real Engagement

Data from the blockchain in the first 24-48 hours shows impressive real-world usage: millions of transactions, hundreds of thousands of active wallets, and tens of thousands of smart contract deployments. The initial total value locked (TVL) reached tens of millions of dollars, with significant trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX). These indicators confirm that Monad is establishing itself as a practical application ecosystem, not just a speculative token.

Outlook Analysis Across Three Timeframes

Short-term: Momentum Continues if Demand Sustains

In the next few days to weeks, if on-chain activity remains steady and liquidity holds, MON could maintain or extend its upward trend. Incentive programs for dApps and liquidity boosts will serve as primary catalysts. Current data with a trading volume of $12.97M indicates continued appeal.

Medium-term: Pressure from Token Unlock Schedule

The biggest challenge in the coming months will stem from scheduled vesting unlocks. As circulating supply increases, even disciplined selling behavior will generate structural sell pressure. If TVL growth and trading volume do not keep pace with new supply, prices may face correction.

Long-term: Dependent on Sustainable Ecosystem Growth

In subsequent quarters, MON’s recovery depends on transitioning from the initial shock to long-term ecosystem growth: expanding TVL, attracting developers, deploying practical applications. With an FDV of $2.33B, market expectations are high; if ecosystem growth does not match, valuation correction risks will rise.

2025 Market Context and Its Implications for MON

2025 is witnessing a clear divide between assets with real fundamentals and tokens lacking applications. Large distributions this year show varied outcomes: some projects collapse due to liquidity shortages or poor distribution. In this landscape, MON stands out thanks to its user-focused distribution approach (DeFi traders, NFT users, developer communities), combined with rapid deployment of applications and liquidity programs. This demonstrates that well-designed distribution and robust liquidity infrastructure can mitigate early sell-off risks.

However, MON’s outlook remains influenced by macro trends—particularly fluctuations in key assets and global capital flows—that can significantly impact prices at any stage.

Key Risks to Monitor Closely

Indicators investors and analysts should watch:

• Token Unlock Schedule: Track the amount of tokens unlocked at each stage and the selling behavior of beneficiaries.
• Valuation Comparison: Assess FDV ($2.33B current) against TVL, network revenue, and actual usage.
• TVL and DEX Volume Trends: If TVL stagnates or declines, medium-term price pressure will increase.
• Order Book Depth and Cross-Platform Liquidity: Fragmented liquidity can heighten volatility during demand drops.
• Development Activity and Economic Philosophy: Growth rate of SDKs, developer documentation, and third-party project incentives.

Guidance for Market Participants

As a highly dynamic asset, MON suits short-term trading strategies based on momentum and liquidity conditions. Long-term investors should focus on ecosystem development potential and absorption capacity of new supply during vesting.

Possible approaches include:

• Short-term Traders: Monitor on-chain indicators, trading volume, and order book depth to capitalize on short-term volatility.
• Long-term Investors: Evaluate TVL expansion rate, dApp development progress, and real usage signals before committing to long-term holdings.
• Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels, allocate capital based on risk/reward ratios, and pay attention to major unlock milestones in the vesting schedule.

Conclusion

MON’s upward momentum following mainnet launch results from a combination of favorable factors: targeted distribution strategy, broad exchange presence, deep liquidity, and vibrant on-chain activity. In the short term, this momentum may persist if on-chain demand remains stable. However, the high valuation ($2.33B FDV) and extended unlock schedule pose medium-term risks that cannot be ignored.

In the 2025 market landscape, Monad exemplifies how a well-prepared launch can avoid typical collapse scenarios. Nonetheless, the sustainability of this momentum depends on the project’s ability to transition from initial shock to long-term ecosystem growth—an aspect that investors and analysts should monitor closely in the coming months.

Note: This article consolidates publicly available information and analysis based on current data. Readers should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.