#预测市场 Seeing Gemini's chances of winning on the Kalshi prediction market rise from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86% now, I am reminded of a common investment misconception—many people like to chase hot predictions in the market, as if participating can help seize opportunities.

But this change in data actually warrants reflection. At the start of the year, ChatGPT was leading; now the situation has completely reversed, with trading volume reaching $14.08 million. What does this indicate? Market expectations are constantly updating, but predictions themselves do not equal investment opportunities.

My advice is that prediction markets can serve as a window into industry dynamics, but never treat them as investment guides. Changes in predicted probabilities reflect collective judgment, not certainty about the future. Especially in high-volatility sectors like technology, we need to stay calm.

If you're interested in AI development, instead of frequently tracking every prediction's rise and fall, focus on two things: first, establish a reasonable asset allocation and avoid putting too many chips on a single prediction; second, give yourself enough holding period to let time verify your judgment.

In the long run, real gains come from prudent decisions and patient waiting, not chasing the latest trends.