#数字资产动态追踪 $XPL $UNI $BTC

【Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Market Expectations Reverse】

Recent data has shown some interesting changes. The probability of a rate cut in January next year has fallen below 15%, while the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged has surged to 85%. This contrast is quite significant—just last week, the market was intensely debating "when to loosen policy," and now the sentiment has shifted dramatically.

More importantly, the data from March indicates that the probability of a rate cut approaching 50%. In other words, nearly half the chance is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady. The earlier optimism about "spring coming" now sounds somewhat harsh.

【The Issue at Hand】

How long will the high-interest-rate environment last? This directly impacts borrowing costs and investment returns. For cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's performance during tightening cycles tends to be quite volatile. After a recent rebound, a policy shift could bring new adjustment pressures—especially for market participants relying on liquidity.

The previously discussed "easing cycle" now appears more like a test of timing. Even if the approval of spot ETFs is positive news, whether the rally can be sustained amid ongoing tightening remains uncertain.

【Practical Choices】

In the face of market conditions, everyone’s strategy varies. Some seek opportunities amid volatility, while others prefer cautious observation. Every move by the Federal Reserve redefines market expectations, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, is particularly sensitive to these macro signals.

What do you think about this shift? Share your thoughts in the comments.