#比特币价格走势 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 on Polymarket drop from earlier expectations to 25%, this market psychology shift behind the number actually reflects the most classic scene in the crypto cycle — the transition from euphoria to calm.

Looking back at history over the years, every major market move has had such moments. The wave at the end of 2017, when everyone was shouting that $100,000 was just the beginning, what happened? In the 2021 peak, a similar voice emerged again. Looking back now, those loudest voices were often the most vulnerable points in the market.

But this time, the situation is a bit different. From the psychological support at $80,000, the market’s fear of downside is not too extreme — the probability of falling below $80,000 is only 22%. This indicates that there is still some consensus among buyers in certain price ranges. The 11万美元 (USD 110,000) prediction probability is only 4%, which seems quite rational, without the irrational FOMO bubble feeling.

Looking at it from another angle, this cooling of sentiment may not be a bad thing. Those who have experienced several cycles understand that the most dangerous thing is not the decline itself, but the moment when everyone is convinced that only prices will go up. Now, the market’s willingness to face uncertainty is actually a sign of maturity.

What to truly observe is how the market reacts if it hits those support levels in the coming weeks. Predicted probabilities and actual actions are often two different things.