2025 Summary – Saying Goodbye to a Challenging Year and a Vision for the Future of the Crypto Market

Looking back at 2025, this is probably one of the most challenging years for the cryptocurrency market in the past 5 years, and also the year when my overall investment performance – from 2020 to now – was among the worst. Compared to US stocks, crypto trading was even more difficult, especially from Q4 onwards, when the two markets began to diverge sharply and the rhythms completely misaligned. The initial goals for BTC and ETH in 2025 were not achieved. But paradoxically, I do not see this as a negative. The strong shakeouts, prolonged tug-of-war, and continuous erosion of sentiment have caused many “weak hands” to leave the market. When expectations decrease, the market structure becomes healthier. It is this that lays the foundation for a stronger growth cycle in the future. Therefore, for the next growth cycle, I set some guiding targets: BTC: 250,000 USD ETH: 10,000 USD Of course, this is not a straight path. There will always be deep corrections, reversals, and capital flows shifting between asset groups. No bull cycle increases continuously without pauses. Most Important Change: Not Price, but Participant Structure The core change in the current crypto market is not about price levels, but about who holds the power. Crypto has entered a phase of institutionalization, with Wall Street playing a central role. The old cycle – where whales and retail investor emotions led the market – has basically ended. Now, the trend is institutional entry – retail exit. Financial institutions are systematically focusing on areas with practical implementation and scalability, such as stablecoins, RWA, or staking. Conversely, meme coins lacking fundamental value have gradually been phased out by the market over time. Many “big players” who were prominent in previous phases have almost completely exited their positions. Statistics from Messari show that in 2025, over 60% of retail investors have voluntarily or involuntarily exited the market. This is not new in crypto history: deep corrections combined with prolonged periods are the harshest tests of confidence. No matter how steadfast, the emotions of the majority often give in first. Key Directions for the Next Growth Cycle In this context, the areas I am particularly interested in for the next cycle are also very clear:

1. Blockchain Platform (Layer 1) Public blockchains are always the foundation of crypto. The focus remains on ETH, along with SOL and BNB.
2. Stablecoins and Related Infrastructure The stablecoin market surpassing 1 trillion USD is only a matter of time. This is becoming the “second growth path” for the USD system. Among compliant stablecoins, CRCL has a clear position. Notable projects in the crypto space include ENA and XPL.
3. Leading Exchanges Exchanges are the core bridge between traditional finance and crypto finance. Coinbase (COIN) stock has demonstrated outstanding strength in the recent cycle. In the next cycle, close monitoring of exchange stocks combined with platform tokens is essential.
4. Oracle (On-Chain Data – Real World) As traditional finance and on-chain increasingly integrate, the role of oracles can only grow. Notable projects include LINK, PYTH, and REZ.
5. Staking The ETF staking for ETH is only a matter of time. As the staking ecosystem matures, the synergy of the entire crypto system becomes stronger. Many organizations have already prepared validator infrastructure for Ethereum before 2026. Notable projects include LDO and ETHFI.
6. RWA (Real World Assets On-Chain) The core value of RWA does not lie in on-chain interest rates but in yields from real credit assets like US government bonds. This provides a solution to the “credit source” problem that DeFi has always lacked. Although still early, the potential in 2026 remains significant, with Ethereum playing a central infrastructure role. Key projects include ONDO and PLUME.
7. New Generation DeFi Single DeFi protocols are increasingly difficult to break through. Opportunities belong to systems capable of connecting foundational blockchains, oracles, staking, and RWA. Typical representatives: AAVE, SKL.
8. AI The AI story in the US stock market is not over yet, but the rhythm will be “two steps forward, one step back.” During this phase, order entry positions and patience are much more important than emotions. Notable names to watch include TAO, WLD, and VIRTUAL. Conclusion Overall, 2025 resembles a brutal cleansing. But this brutality paves the way for the next cycle – where institutions begin to accelerate truly, and a new financial structure gradually takes shape. This is the phase where crypto enters a completely different level.