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The Federal Reserve's policy direction becomes crucial, and the US dollar's annual decline may continue.
As 2025 comes to an end, the US dollar exchange rate has experienced its largest annual drop in nearly eight years, intensifying market concerns. The Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index fell about 8% for the year, reflecting dollar weakness and global capital's shaken confidence in dollar assets. The trigger for the decline was Trump's new tariffs policy in April 2025, after which the dollar fell and failed to rebound effectively.
The fundamental reason lies in market bets on changes in Federal Reserve personnel and policies.
Powell's term is coming to an end, and Trump may nominate a dovish successor. A dovish chair could implement aggressive rate cuts, weakening the dollar's attractiveness, triggering capital outflows, and increasing downward pressure on the dollar, with weakness potentially persisting.