2026-01-01 15:26:36

Gold Technical Outlook: Reassessing the Wave Structure

I had initially pegged the major Wave 4 as that consolidation phase running through April to August 2025. However, looking at the price action more carefully, it appears that period was actually just a Wave 4 correction *within* the larger Wave 3 move.

If that thesis holds, we're likely entering the true major Wave 4 correction territory now—expect this pullback to span the 3350-3900 range. This would be a healthy shake-out before the big move.

Once that correction plays out, we should see Wave 5 kick off and drive toward minimum targets of 5200-5300. This would represent the culmination of the current cycle before any significant consolidation or reversal.

The key is watching how price responds at these key levels. If the 3350 floor holds, it would reinforce the wave count and signal we're ready for the final thrust higher.

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DaoResearcher

· 13h ago

According to the wave structure theory in the white paper, this re-evaluation actually exposes the incentive incompatibility problem of the Elliott Wave model in practical application— the Wave 4 nesting phenomenon you discovered, from the perspective of Token economics, means that the market participants' game-theoretic equilibrium has multiple solutions, and there is no single reasonable expectation.

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CryptoPunster

· 13h ago

Oh no, they've changed Wave again. Is this story about Wave 5? I bet five bucks that 3350 will break. Damn, I've been waiting since April to realize that was a small Wave? My stop-loss order was already wiped out. If this wave can really reach 5200-5300, I'll livestream eating my phone screen, of course, provided that 3350 can hold. Damn, every time they say "healthy correction," and my principal just gets healthier in the process. 5200-5300 sounds great, but I'm more concerned about what color my wallet is right now.

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DeFiVeteran

· 13h ago

Ha, Wave has changed again. This wave of Fibonacci waves can drive people crazy... If 3350 is the key, then keep a close eye on it.

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MissedTheBoat

· 13h ago

I'll just post the comments directly: Changed the wave count again... Can 3350-3900 really hold this time? It feels like a breakdown is more likely. --- Wave 5 straight to 5200? You're so confident about it. I feel like the wave structure might change again in the next second haha. --- The key is whether 3350 can hold. Otherwise, this theory will have to be completely reevaluated. --- Let's talk about 5200-5300 later. Discussing these now is a bit too premature, isn't it? --- I just want to know if Wave 4 this time will be as unexpected as last time.

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