2025 is regarded as the brightest asset globally. The annual increase ranges from 67% to 71%, with prices soaring from a low of $2,614 to $4,526, hitting over 50 new historical highs during the period. Behind this rally, policy tensions and escalating geopolitical tensions have fueled risk aversion sentiment. The Federal Reserve's annual rate cut of 75 basis points pushed real interest rates down to -2%, coupled with the continuous weakening of the US dollar, these factors combined to create a explosive effect. Central banks worldwide have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, and retail enthusiasm has also been ignited, with total annual demand reaching 3,640 tons, a record high.

Looking at the trend in four distinct phases: a concentrated surge at the beginning of the year, a period of consolidation starting in summer, a frenzy in autumn, and gradual stabilization at year-end.

Entering 2026, it is expected to be characterized mainly by oscillations with a slight upward bias, with pullbacks presenting buying opportunities. Under the baseline scenario, gold prices will fluctuate within the range of $4,100 to $4,800, with an average staying above $4,400. If the economy unexpectedly plunges or conflicts escalate, prices could surge to $4,900-$5,055, with extreme cases even reaching $6,000. Conversely, if the economy recovers strongly, gold prices may retrace by 5%-20%, with support levels at $3,900 or $3,575.

Tomorrow's trading strategy: for bullish positions, consider accumulating in the range of 4,270-4,280, targeting 4,350-4,410; for short-term short positions, enter at 4,380-4,385, aiming for a profit of 10-30 points.