Recently, I came across articles from some financial media summarizing the views of multiple analysts on Bitcoin's outlook for next year. You might find it hard to believe—target prices ranging from $120,000 all the way up to $250,000. Why are investment banks so optimistic this time?

The main logic behind these predictions isn't actually complicated. The first support is the continuous inflow into ETFs—since last year's policy opened up, Wall Street's funds can finally enter the market openly, something that was impossible before. The second is the gradual clarification of regulations. As frameworks become clearer across regions, large institutions no longer have to worry about policies catching them off guard, easing many concerns. The third is the effect of the halving cycle—last year's halving event may just now be starting to show its power.

In simple terms, it's the combination of three factors: large-scale capital has a compliant channel, policy uncertainty is decreasing, and on-chain supply pressures are changing. This is why these analysts dare to call out such aggressive targets.

But there's a very practical issue—predictions are always just predictions. Look at those big names making calls; many times, they've already set their positions long before they start amplifying their voices. Additionally, variables like the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace, the global economic situation, and geopolitical tensions are all uncertain; any of these can change the entire logical projection. Bitcoin has never lacked volatility, and 2024 will be no different.

A more realistic suggestion is: don't be scared by price targets, nor be fooled by them. Instead of obsessing over whether it can reach $250,000, think about how much drawdown your position can withstand. Those who truly make money are often not because they called the right direction, but because they survive long enough and maintain a steady strategy.

So the question is—if Bitcoin really reaches $200,000 next year, how much are you willing to invest now? Conversely, if it doesn't rise or even moves in the opposite direction, can you hold on? The answers to these questions will determine every move you make next.