2026-01-01 18:20:17

#数字资产动态追踪 Ethereum 1-hour chart just saw RSI spike to 80.4. This extreme overbought condition, combined with the price repeatedly oscillating within a narrow 36-point range from 2970 to 3006, often signals an imminent sharp unidirectional move in history. According to statistics, the combination of "extreme overbought + narrow consolidation" has a probability of over 70% to lead to a major trend. The current question is whether this is a trap set by bears to lure in longs or a violent breakout after a shakeout by bulls. The market will provide the answer in the next 6 hours.

From the current situation, the contradiction is quite sharp. On one hand, RSI is already severely overheated, and a technical correction is imminent; on the other hand, the price is tightly stuck within the 36-point range, with volatility at a low point. This is not a typical trending market but more like a high-precision range sniper — every move must be at the boundary, avoiding staying in the middle zone.

From a trading perspective, I lean towards bearishness but also prepare for a breakout scenario. On the downside, if the price hits a top again around 3002-3005, I will consider shorting, with a stop-loss set at 3012, and the first target at 2990, with an extreme case at 2980. On the upside, if the price stabilizes above 3006 and volume increases, be cautious of a potential surge toward the 4-hour resistance at 3028. Regardless of the direction, position sizes should be extremely light, with no single trade exceeding 1% of total capital and a maximum loss per trade of 0.5%. Key point: once the price breaks (upward through 3012 or downward through 2965 with volume), immediately withdraw all positions and avoid wishful thinking.

The daily chart's overall background remains in a downtrend, so in my priority of operations, the high short scenario is placed first. Statistically, about 60% of the time, the price will top near 3005, RSI will turn downward from the overbought zone, with a correction target around 2980-2970; the remaining 40% of the time, the price will stabilize above and impulsively surge higher. If that happens, resist the urge to chase longs and wait for a higher level to short again. $ETH 's current performance tests discipline and risk management.

ETH0.6%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
3
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

gas_guzzler

· 6h ago

Bro, this RSI has gone crazy, bouncing back and forth between 36 points, feels like taking a dump before squatting. --- 60% chance of breaking down? I bet this is a trap to shake out the weak hands, I love this kind of confusing market. --- I agree with the ultra-light position at this point, otherwise it’s too late to cry after getting trapped. --- Every time I see this kind of technical analysis, I want to ask, what about those 20% black swan events? Can the probability save us? --- If 3005 hits the top again, I’ll go short directly. Damn, this repeated torment is wearing out my patience. --- The daily downtrend is still there, shorting is the right way, don’t be fooled by this 1-hour rebound. --- Tight stop-loss at 3012? What if a single bearish candle breaks straight through? Scary as hell.

View OriginalReply1

MemeKingNFT

· 6h ago

This RSI soaring to 80.4 started to scare us, I think it's a bit hasty, after all, we've seen such extreme signals before, and the result was a reverse surge. Wait, can the 36-point range really pinpoint a big move? I feel like this is more like the market is accumulating, and the signal is so perfect that it’s actually the most terrifying. 60% probability of a short, 40% probability of a long, this is just gambling. Honestly, we're all just blindly guessing in the dark. I've fallen for the 1% position trick before, but this time, combining it with the logic of full withdrawal after a breakout is somewhat interesting. Six hours to get the answer? Fine, I’ll bet this is just another false alarm. Where can ETH move if Bitcoin stays still?

View OriginalReply1

NFTArchaeologis

· 6h ago

This situation of repeatedly probing within an extremely narrow range is very much like the bizarre stalemate in the early digital art trading market—many onlookers, few actual battles. An RSI soaring above 80 is definitely not a good sign; history always repeats its rhythm.

View OriginalReply1