Seeing old Z15 mining machines on the market for 30,000 each, and people still rushing to buy them, I calculated the output—about 200 a day. How optimistic do you have to be to look at this and laugh? It seems some friends are treating scrap yards as gold mines. But thinking about it, it’s understandable; the plunge of KAS in 2022 was terrifying, and everyone finally saw new opportunities. It’s easy to get impatient, but we need to be clear about the facts.

Let’s start with a harsh reality: in the crypto mining industry, machines over 3 years old are basically scrap. Their performance decays too severely, and their energy consumption is high. In terms of mining value, they’re roughly comparable to waste material. Back in the day, the M30 series—these legendary machines—were sold by weight to recyclers during bear markets. Now, machines from the Z15 era can be sold for 30,000. What’s behind this? Simply put, it’s capital exploiting retail investors’ cognitive blind spots.

To determine whether a certain mining hardware has speculative elements, the most effective method is: look at the match between the machine’s price and its output, then assess how long this model can continue to benefit from current market conditions. Generally, the payback period for new machines should be between half a year and a year. If it exceeds that, be cautious. Take ZEC’s new machines now—priced at 300,000 each, claiming to mine 3,000 a day, with a payback period of about 100 days. Sounds short, right? But here’s the big pitfall: crypto market output is highly volatile. Today’s 3,000 could be halved tomorrow, making this calculation unreliable.