#预测市场发展 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year drop to 11% on Polymarket, I actually find this to be an interesting signal.

To be honest, when market sentiment shifts from euphoria to caution, it’s often a sign that we need to pause and think carefully. Bitcoin retreating from $120,000 has indeed caused many to doubt, but if we look deeper into the prediction markets themselves, we’ll see their true value — they are not gambling casinos predicting who will profit or lose, but rather using real money to help us understand collective cognition.

Recently, I’ve been thinking that instead of obsessing over short-term price movements, it’s better to focus on the larger trends happening by 2026. Stablecoins have already surpassed $300 billion in size, prediction markets like Polymarket are gradually evolving into macro pricing tools, and on-chain financial infrastructure is accelerating its development. Behind these changes is the shift of the crypto industry from a "casino narrative" to "real-world applications."

So when you see the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year drop to 11%, don’t see it as bad news — it might actually indicate that the market has become more rational. What’s truly worth looking forward to are those applications solving real-world problems, those scenarios that are already touching people’s daily lives. That’s where the long-term value of crypto lies. Do you believe it? Time will tell.