Behind XRP surpassing $2, the dual-driven force of institutional ETFs and ecosystem expansion

XRP Returns to the $2 Level, Multiple Positive Factors Resonating

As of January 4th, XRP is trading at $2.06, up 0.56% in 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 9.93%. The 24-hour trading volume reached $2.425 billion, with a market capitalization of approximately $125.024 billion, ranking 4th in the cryptocurrency market. This breakthrough is not an isolated event but the result of multiple factors including institutional allocation, ecosystem expansion, and policy support.

Institutional Allocation Becomes the Core Support

Spot ETF Continues Net Inflows Changing Market Dynamics

Since the launch of the US spot XRP ETF in November 2025, it has accumulated net inflows of over $1.2 billion, with assets under management surpassing $1.24 billion. More notably, this capital has maintained stable inflows for seven consecutive weeks, with an average weekly increase of about $64 million.

The Franklin Templeton XRPZ fund’s holdings have broken through 100 million XRP for the first time, reaching 101.5 million XRP, with a holding market value of $1.927 billion, a monthly growth of over 100%. Leading asset management firms such as Canary Capital, Grayscale, and Bitwise have launched related products, forming an institutional-level allocation ecosystem.

Compared to the performance of other assets during the same period, this data is even more significant: while Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $2.9 billion and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $59.5 million, XRP ETFs still maintained net inflows against the trend. Last week, a single-day net inflow reached $70.2 million, fully reflecting long-term institutional recognition of XRP’s strategic value.

Derivatives Market Maturity Enhancement

CME Group has launched XRP futures based on spot prices, with nominal trading volume reaching hundreds of billions of dollars. XRP futures support TAS (Trade at Settlement) functionality, allowing investors to trade at the settlement price of the day, further facilitating institutional hedging and trading. The improvement of these infrastructures marks XRP’s transition from a highly volatile crypto asset to an institutionally configurable financial instrument.

Ecosystem Expansion Opens New Application Scenarios

Cross-Chain Strategy Evolves from Single Chain to Multi-Chain

Wrapped XRP has been launched on multiple mainstream networks including Solana, Ethereum, Optimism, Ink, and Unichain. These tokens are issued in partnership with Hex Trust and LayerZero, supported 1:1 by the native XRP, with initial lock-in liquidity exceeding $100 million.

Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD has initiated multi-chain pilot programs, launching on Ethereum Layer 2 networks via Wormhole protocol. Flare and DeFi platforms Upshift Finance and risk management firm Clearstar have launched XRP yield products earnXRP, allowing users to deposit FXRP into vaults to earn XRP-denominated yields.

Tokenization of Real-World Assets Becomes a New Growth Point

The total value of tokenized real-world assets on XRPL has exceeded $568 million, with an annual growth rate of 2200%. Among them, RLUSD accounts for over 50%, approximately $293 million, and OpenEden TBILL Vault about $61.46 million. These data indicate that XRP Ledger is no longer just a payment tool but has become an important infrastructure in the RWA ecosystem.

Policy and Environmental Signals Send Positive Messages

The current US President emphasized in a public speech the modernization of the financial system through faster payment infrastructure and advanced crypto technologies, specifically mentioning “accelerated payments” and “next-generation financial technology.” As an asset designed for cross-border payments, XRP’s technological positioning aligns with the current policy reform directions.

The Japanese government plans to reduce the tax rate on cryptocurrency investment gains from the maximum 55% to 20%, and intends to launch more ETF products linked to specific cryptocurrencies. Japan has launched its first XRP ETF and established long-term cooperation with Ripple in cross-border payments through channels like SBI Holdings. These policy changes create a more favorable environment for XRP’s practical application.

Market Expectations for the Mid-Term Outlook

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research expressed optimism about XRP, predicting that by 2026, the price could rise to $8, representing a potential increase of 288% from the current $2.06. This judgment is based on the combined factors of ongoing net inflows into spot XRP ETFs, improved global liquidity management, and the application prospects of XRPL in cross-border payments.

Several technical analysts, based on long-term structures and historical fractals, also give similarly optimistic forecasts for XRP, with some suggesting that the price could hit higher targets before 2026, reflecting a consensus in traditional finance and technical analysis on XRP’s medium- to long-term value.

Factors to Watch Moving Forward

On-chain data shows that XRP holdings on centralized exchanges have fallen to about $2.6 billion, a new low since July 2024. Although Ripple plans to unlock 1 billion XRP in January 2026, historical data indicates that about two-thirds or even up to four-fifths of unlocked XRP are usually quickly re-entrusted, with limited actual inflow into the secondary market.

The 30-day moving average of whale funds flowing in and out of XRP shows that selling pressure has weakened. While social sentiment among investors is somewhat weak in the short term, historical experience suggests that such extreme emotions often occur near bottom phases, creating conditions for a rebound.

Summary

XRP’s breakthrough past $2 is driven by the combined resonance of continuous net inflows into institutional ETFs, cross-chain ecosystem expansion, and supportive policy signals. From a capital perspective, institutional-level allocation has begun to take shape; from a fundamental standpoint, RWA and DeFi applications are expanding; and from a policy angle, the focus on payment modernization creates favorable conditions for XRP’s practical deployment. Standard Chartered’s $8 forecast reflects market optimism for the mid-term outlook, but all investment decisions should consider market volatility risks, especially monitoring ETF inflow trends, policy changes, and ecosystem development as key indicators.