Gold in 2026.. Are we expecting a jump towards $5000?

The global market has undergone a radical shift in gold demand in recent months, with gold prices reaching record levels of $4300 per ounce in October 2025, before experiencing a slight decline to nearly $4000 in November, sparking intense debates among analysts about the upcoming price trajectory and the potential target of $5000 per ounce in the coming year.

Factors Driving Continuous Rise

Investors are Recalculating

The notable increase is attributed to a combination of factors, foremost among them investment demand reaching unprecedented levels. Data from the World Gold Council showed that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1249 tons, a 45% increase in value, with Q1 recording its highest level since 2016 at 1206 tons.

More importantly, Gold ETFs attracted massive inflows, raising assets under management to $472 billion with holdings exceeding 3838 tons, very close to the all-time peak of 3929 tons, reflecting growing confidence from individual and institutional investors in the yellow metal as a safe haven.

Central Banks Keep Buying

On another front, central banks continued to bolster their reserves strongly, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a rate exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 24%.

Notably, 44% of central banks worldwide now hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024, with China, Turkey, and India leading the buyers, with China alone adding over 65 tons for 22 consecutive months.

Supply Lags Behind Demand

While demand accelerates, supply remains limited. Mine production in Q1 2025 reached 856 tons, a slight increase of less than 1%, and recycled gold declined by 1%, as holders preferred to retain their holdings expecting further increases.

Additionally, global production costs rose to $1470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade, meaning any expansion in production would be costly and limited.

Monetary Policies Open Horizons

The Fed Tightens Grip

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Market expectations point to an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025, which could boost gold’s appeal as a safe asset.

BlackRock analysts forecast that interest rates will reach 3.4% by the end of 2026, leading to a decline in real bond yields and reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Global Central Banks Move Toward Easing

Most major central banks have adopted various easing policies, resulting in weakening local currencies and declining real yields, all of which enhance gold’s attractiveness as a non-yielding safe haven.

The Dollar Declines and Geopolitical Tensions Rise

The US dollar has fallen by 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 through November 2025, while 10-year US Treasury yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%, a double decline that strongly supported demand for gold.

On the geopolitical front, increased uncertainty around trade conflicts and tensions in the Middle East added an extra 7% to annual demand, pushing investors toward safe havens.

Financial Institutions Raise Their Forecasts

HSBC expects $5000 in the first half of 2026

HSBC predicts that gold will surge to $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected average of $4600 for the entire year, up from an average of $3455 in 2025.

Bank of America Sets the Same Target

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5000 as a potential peak, with an expected annual average of $4400, but warned of a possible short-term correction if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Its Forecast to $4900

Goldman Sachs announced an adjusted target for 2026 at $4900 per ounce, citing continued strong inflows into gold funds and central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan Projects $5055 by Mid-2026

Research from J.P. Morgan indicates gold could reach approximately $5055 by mid-2026.

Consensus: Most Likely Range of $4800-$5000

Based on various forecasts, the most repeated price range among analysts is between $4800 and $5000 as a peak, with an average annual range between $4200 and $4800.

Will Gold Decline in 2026?

Warnings of a Correction

Despite positive outlooks, HSBC warns that momentum may weaken in the second half of 2026 with a correction possibly down to $4200, but the bank excludes a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Similarly, Goldman Sachs cautions that sustained prices above $4800 could pose a tough price credibility test for the metal.

However, Strong Support Remains

Conversely, analysts J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset rather than just a short-term speculative tool.

Technical Analysis: What Does the Chart Say?

Current Support and Resistance Levels

Gold closed trading on November 21, 2025, at $4065 per ounce after touching a high of $4381 on October 20.

The price maintains the main upward trendline at $4050 on the daily chart, with the $4000 level serving as a strong, decisive support. Breaking below it with a clear daily close could target the $3800 zone (50% Fibonacci retracement).

On the upside, $4200 is the first strong resistance, followed by $4400 and $4680.

Momentum Indicators Are Neutral

The RSI remains at 50, indicating neutrality without overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD signal line stays above zero, confirming the overall upward trend.

Near-term Scenario: Range of $4000-$4220

Analysis favors continued sideways trading within a bullish bias between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Gold Outlook in the Middle East

Egypt: Expected Surge of 158%

The Middle East region has seen a notable increase in gold reserves held by central banks, with the Egyptian and Qatari central banks increasing their reserves during 2025.

Price forecasts in Egypt suggest gold could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, representing a 158.46% jump compared to current prices.

Saudi Arabia and UAE: Around 18750-19000 SAR and AED

Based on the global forecast of $5000 per ounce, and using current stable exchange rates, gold in Saudi Arabia could reach approximately 18750-19000 SAR, and in the UAE around 18375-19000 AED.

Note that these are approximate forecasts dependent on exchange rate stability and continued global demand.

Summary: What Lies Ahead for the Gold Market?

The overall outlook is positive but cautious

The gold market entered a new phase in 2025-2026, where economic, geopolitical, and monetary factors converged to support the yellow metal. As the cycle of monetary tightening nears its end and economic risks increase, gold appears strongly positioned to continue its ascent.

If real yields keep declining and the dollar remains weak, then reaching $5000 in 2026 is possible. However, if inflation recedes and financial markets regain confidence, gold may enter a stabilization phase that prevents achieving these ambitious targets.

Investors should wait and observe the Federal Reserve’s actions and the global economy before making investment decisions.