#比特币价格预测 Looking at this wave of forecast data, market divergence has indeed reached a significant level. The $100,000 probability on Polymarket has already fallen to 10%, indicating that market expectations for a short-term breakout are clearly weakening. However, the baseline forecast from Citigroup is $143,000, while Tom Lee's team instead sees a target of $115,000 by the end of 2026—this range reflects not uncertainty but the lack of consensus on two key issues: macro liquidity conditions and the pace of institutional entry.

From the pricing in the options market, the probability of Bitcoin being between $50,000 and $250,000 by the end of the year is almost evenly split, and this smile curve already explains the situation well. Short-term risks do exist—once the critical support level of $70,000 is broken, the downside space opens up to $60,000–$65,000. But from a capital perspective, the growth trajectory of crypto ETFs remains upward, and the expansion of institutional covered call strategies instead suggests that the bottom is stabilizing.

My view is: digesting risks in the short term is necessary, and the correction in the first half of 2026 could be the best opportunity for strategic positioning. The key is to track whale movements and large contract flows; at this stage, changes in the main players' holdings are more informative than the forecasts themselves.