#机构采用与配置 Recently, I have been repeatedly analyzing exchange fund flow data. The monthly trading volume surged to $10.9 billion, reaching a new high since May 2021 — this signal should be taken seriously.

From on-chain flow perspective, this is not an early accumulation pattern; instead, it indicates profit-taking and position hedging. Coinbase premium has remained negative for a long time, which does not signal capitulation but hesitation — capital is in place, but the willingness to chase prices is clearly lacking. This means institutional fund inflows are being absorbed by long-term holders, weakening the impact of incremental funds on price movement.

The key question is whether the four-year cycle has become invalid. Based on temporal symmetry, the pattern of approximately 1064 days from bottom to top and about 364 days from top to next bottom can still be observed. But the structure has changed — this round of ETF redemptions, OG sell-offs, and miner pressure differ from previous years.

Institutional strategists hold differing opinions. Fundstrat still maintains expectations of challenging new highs before the end of the year, while Fidelity believes that the October high is both a price top and a time top, with a high probability of decline in 2026, and support levels at $65,000–$75,000.

My view is that Q1 2026 will be a critical validation point — not just for the cycle, but also for assessing the extent of the shift from price-driven to allocation-driven strategies by institutions. At this stage, there’s no need to obsess over price predictions; the focus should be on the changing logic of capital allocation, which is the underlying signal that will determine subsequent trends.