By January 2026, we are able to make more systematic judgments about the entire year's Bitcoin trend based on actual market data and macroeconomic environment.

The pattern of Bitcoin following a "four-year cycle" is quite obvious. 2025 is typically a year of rapid surge, while 2026 often faces a cooling-off and a phase of finding support. This is not a bad thing; on the contrary, it reflects market maturity—after rapid growth, a correction and consolidation are inevitable.

The biggest change lies in the market structure itself. Spot ETFs have been operating for over two years, and institutional funds have become the main participants in the market. Compared to the sharp fluctuations dominated by retail investors in 2018 or 2022, Bitcoin's volatility today has significantly stabilized. Large institutional holdings naturally have a stabilizing effect, which means extreme market conditions are unlikely in 2026.

Regarding specific prices, based on comprehensive forecasts from investment banks and on-chain analysts:

In an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin may trade between $120,000 and $160,000. This requires a global interest rate cut cycle to be maintained, and no excessive speculative bubbles to form in 2025. The neutral scenario is a high-level oscillation between $90,000 and $120,000.

There is also a deeper change: Bitcoin is being viewed by global sovereign funds and large corporations as an asset allocation tool to address debt issues. This "digital gold" positioning has been established, laying a foundation for long-term value, and even short-term volatility is unlikely to change this trend.