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The Reserve Bank of Australia's attitude has changed so quickly. Just recently cutting interest rates, now the market is discussing the possibility of a rate hike as early as February next year.
Data speaks the loudest. October CPI year-over-year surged to 3.8%, the highest in nearly 10 months. Citibank issued a warning: if November data continues to exceed expectations, consecutive rate hikes in February and May are basically a certainty. The problem is, the market is clearly unprepared for this wave of rate hikes, and bond sell-off risks have already soared.
How drastic is the RBA's shift? Last August, they were still cutting rates; by December, the governor directly stated, "Don't expect further cuts." The meeting minutes for the first time mentioned the possibility of "rate hikes," marking a 180-degree policy shift.
What does this mean for ordinary people? Mortgage monthly payments may face upward pressure. In a high-interest-rate environment, consumption and investment demand will be severely suppressed. Major banks' forecasts are already diverging, and market volatility is imminent.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and BNB will definitely feel the impact of these macro expectations in the short term. Once the rate hike cycle begins, risk assets usually come under pressure. What do you think? Do you believe the rate hikes will really follow this pace? Have you adjusted your asset allocation?