The US labor market is facing unprecedented pressure. According to the latest insights from economist Rosenberg, 2026 could become a pivotal year for participants in the crypto market to watch.

Unemployment data has sent clear signals. The rate has risen from 4% to 4.6%, reaching new highs, while the hiring market has frozen. More concerning is the possibility that underlying structural distortions are hidden behind the current unemployment figures—tariff policies have already dragged down tens of thousands of jobs, a wave of corporate bankruptcies is spreading, and some analysts suggest that employment growth in 2026 may stagnate at zero.

The economic fundamentals are also deteriorating. GDP growth is being artificially sustained by shrinking imports, which is an extremely fragile foundation. Meanwhile, household savings have been depleted, income growth has stalled, and consumer spending shows clear divergence—ordinary consumers’ purchasing power has significantly declined, and retail data is nearly at a standstill.

There are obvious disagreements within the Federal Reserve. The view represented by Rosenberg believes that the economic fundamentals cannot withstand the pressure, and the Fed will inevitably move toward aggressive easing, possibly cutting interest rates by 125 basis points. However, the Wall Street consensus remains relatively conservative, with most expecting only a 50 basis point cut. The core dispute between both sides centers on inflation trends—one side insists that prices will stabilize and decline, while the other worries that inflation remains sticky and difficult to bring down.

This policy uncertainty has profound implications for asset allocation. Worsening employment data, potential statistical distortions, and unclear Fed policy directions are all increasing market risks. As an alternative asset class, cryptocurrencies often face liquidity pressures and risk appetite declines during macroeconomic upheavals.

The key question now is: will the unemployment rate truly break through the psychological threshold of 6%? If it does, how much room does the Fed have to cut rates? These answers will directly influence asset performance in 2026.