According to the latest data, the probability of crude oil futures (CL) closing higher on January 5th once surged to 80%, which is indeed quite high.

The underlying logic is actually not complicated. On one hand, the dramatic change in Venezuela's political situation over the weekend directly affected global energy supply expectations— as a major oil and gas exporter in Latin America, such geopolitical events have always made the market highly sensitive. On the other hand, the latest crude oil inventory data released by EIA showed a decline, signaling a tightening of supply and boosting traders' confidence in oil price support.

There's a detail worth noting: the settlement logic of the forecast contracts is very clear, only comparing the CME official settlement prices on January 5th and January 2nd; intraday fluctuations do not count. In other words, even if geopolitical events cause short-term retracements during trading hours, as long as the closing price is higher than the previous trading day, it is considered a rise. The market generally believes that this probability indeed exists.

From the perspective of capital flow, traders' positions have fully expressed this expectation—indicating that supply-side contraction factors are becoming the main driving force behind oil prices.