ETH breaks through the key level of 3200: institutions continue to increase their holdings, but upward momentum is weakening

Ethereum broke through the key level of 3200 USDT on January 5, 2026, with the current price at 3204.5 USDT. This breakthrough not only signifies ETH once again crossing a psychological threshold but also reflects a divergence in attitudes among institutions and whales in the market. However, it is worth noting that technical indicators show that upward momentum is weakening, which adds uncertainty to the subsequent trend.

Market Significance of the 3200 Breakthrough

According to the latest news, ETH has increased by 7.65% over the past 7 days, and by 5.21% over the past 30 days. On a shorter cycle, it has risen 1.18% in the past 24 hours and 1.07% in the past hour. The 3200 level holds significant psychological importance for ETH — it is a critical resistance level that has been touched multiple times since last year, with each breakout accompanied by a shift in market sentiment.

Currently, ETH’s market capitalization is $38.43 billion, ranking second in the cryptocurrency market with a market share of 12.16%. The 24-hour trading volume reaches $1.46 billion, indicating relatively active market participation during the 3200 breakthrough.

Signals of “Divergence” Between Institutions and Whales

From recent on-chain data, market participants’ attitudes are not uniform:

Institutions continue to buy

According to the latest monitoring, BlackRock deposited 7,255 ETH (approximately $22.1 million) into Coinbase Prime on January 2, indicating that the world’s largest asset manager is still increasing its Ethereum exposure. This behavior is generally seen as a bullish signal for ETH’s medium-term trend.

Whale activity is frequent

In contrast, whale movements are more complex:

• On January 3, a whale swapped $44.195 million worth of WETH for WBTC, with a cost basis of about $2,916, currently with an unrealized profit of $213,000.
• On January 2, a whale that borrowed 5,000 ETH a month ago for shorting closed its position after ETH surpassed $3,000, earning about $390,000.
• On January 3, an unknown wallet transferred 19,200 ETH to a beacon chain deposit contract, worth approximately $60.24 million.

These activities show that some whales are taking profits and reducing their holdings or shifting to other assets, which may indicate that market consensus is loosening.

Technical Warning Signs

Based on the latest 4-hour candlestick analysis, Ethereum exhibits some noteworthy features:

These indicators collectively suggest that although ETH has successfully broken through 3200, the intrinsic upward momentum is waning. The divergence of rising prices with decreasing volume is particularly concerning — it often indicates that the rally may lack sufficient market participation to sustain it.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

According to technical analysis, ETH’s recent key support levels are in the $2913–$2928 range, with resistance at $3104–$3167. Breaking through 3200 is only the first step; whether ETH can hold this level and push higher depends on whether trading volume can support the move and whether institutional funds continue to flow in.

Summary

ETH’s breakthrough of 3200 USDT reflects the presence of bullish forces in the market, supported by ongoing institutional buying such as BlackRock. However, from a technical perspective, weakening momentum and insufficient volume are warning signs. The divergence between continuous institutional buying and gradual whale profit-taking indicates that market consensus on the next move is not yet unified. This level is more of a phase breakthrough rather than a trend confirmation. Whether ETH can stabilize above 3200 and continue to rise toward 3300 or even 3400 depends on further volume confirmation.