#数字资产动态追踪 Wall Street veteran sounds the alarm for 2026: Unemployment could break 6%?

The former chief North America economist at Merrill Lynch, David Rosenberg, recently made a prediction that has sparked quite a buzz: if a recession hits as expected, the unemployment rate could surge to over 6%. Faced with this risk, the Federal Reserve might have to make a tough decision—aggressively cut interest rates by 125 basis points, ultimately bringing rates back down to around 2.25%.

Don’t think this is just alarmist talk. This seasoned expert has experienced multiple economic cycles firsthand and is more attuned to market rhythms than anyone. Looking at current data, some unusual signals are indeed emerging.

If this scenario unfolds, the returns from traditional investment channels will be significantly compressed. So the question is—where will liquidity flow? History shows that at such junctures, capital always finds new safe havens. Some asset classes may be re-priced, while others could see an influx of new funds.

On the eve of an economic turning point, it’s always a mix of danger and opportunity. The choices before everyone are simple—either proactively position for defense or use the pressure as a reason to double down on core holdings.

What’s your take? Will 2026 really follow this economist’s script? Share your judgment in the comments.