Recent technical analysis based on on-chain data shows that the BTC MVRV indicator's trend is quite worth paying attention to. Looking back at the analysis conclusion from mid-December, the MVRV expectation for BTC before the beginning of the year remained in the range of 1.45-1.63, with corresponding price targets of $81,700 to $91,800. As of now, BTC's actual MVRV is around 1.58, with the price at approximately $88,000 to $90,000, which basically aligns perfectly with the forecast framework at that time.

The next critical time window is January 23. According to the "Three Lines Converge" comprehensive indicator calculation, the MVRV may bottom out at 1.27, corresponding to a BTC price of about $71,000. However, based on the current on-chain data and candlestick performance, the likelihood of actually dropping to this lowest point is not very high.

If BTC can smoothly pass the January 23 threshold, there will likely be a clear rebound phase afterward. Based on the indicator projection, before February 16, the MVRV high could reach 1.85, with a corresponding BTC price target of $104,000.

Of course, technical analysis cannot be 100% accurate, but considering the current market conditions and the consistency of various indicators, the probability of this rebound occurring is relatively high.