The first week of the new year has directly staged a "king bomb" level drama in the global markets. The US Non-Farm Payrolls and China’s CPI/PPI data are scheduled to be released in the same week, reflecting a critical window for the global central bank monetary policy shift. Meanwhile, the visit of the Korea trade and economic delegation to China has also become another main storyline in the market—signals of cooperation in strategic industries like semiconductors and power batteries are releasing new imaginative space.

Let's look at the timing first. During the week, the US manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data will be released in turn, providing an early warm-up for the market. At the same time, frequent news of Korea’s trade and economic dialogues and signing ceremonies are emerging, each potentially acting as a catalyst for related industry sectors. The real turning point falls on Friday—when the US December Non-Farm Payrolls report and China’s December CPI/PPI are released on the same day. These two sets of data will essentially set the tone for the global central banks’ monetary policy at the start of the year.

Why is this week so important? The key lies in the game of interest rate cut expectations. The US unemployment rate has been rising for three consecutive months, reaching a warning line. According to historical data, when such signals appear, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the next 6 to 12 months exceeds 80%. The market is now intensely speculating whether rate cuts in the first half of 2026 will really materialize.

From an industry perspective, the information brought by the Korea presidential delegation’s visit to China is also quite positive. Deepening multinational cooperation in semiconductors and new energy means a more stable industrial chain, which is a positive signal for those holding related assets. Coupled with diplomatic warmth, investor confidence is expected to be boosted.

However, caution is needed in trading this week. Before the data is released, the market is prone to wide fluctuations driven by various expectations, and those chasing gains or cutting losses are most likely to be caught off guard. The key is to remember that "expectations and actual results are two different things." It is recommended to keep positions stable and avoid unnecessary moves, wait until the data is published to see where funds are flowing, and then adjust based on the change in flow. Focus on directions supported by solid industry consensus, such as semiconductors and new energy, rather than following the trend to chase hot concepts.

Will this week’s movement be dominated by the Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI/PPI data, or driven by positive diplomatic and trade news? That’s a question worth pondering carefully.