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What alarm bells are unemployment data ringing?

Wall Street has recently become a bit restless. The unemployment rate jumped from 4% to 4.6%, layoffs hit a one-year high, and corporate hiring activity has almost frozen. On the surface, these are just numerical fluctuations, but they may conceal greater economic risks behind the scenes.

Seemingly moderate growth is actually accelerating in contraction—tariff shocks have cut over 70,000 factory jobs, and bankruptcy filings continue to rise. Some analysts openly state: by 2026, US employment growth could reach zero, and that is no small issue.

💸 The truth on the ledger

GDP data is being propped up by shrinking imports, but the wallets of ordinary people have long been emptied. Savings rates are collapsing, income growth has stagnated, and retail consumption growth has slowed to just 0.2%. Non-essential consumption is shrinking across the board, and a K-shaped split has already taken shape—wealth is concentrating upward, while consumption collapses downward.

🔥 What will the Federal Reserve choose?

Wall Street currently expects a 50 basis point rate cut, but hawkish members insist the Fed needs more aggressive action—a violent cut of 125 basis points, directly bringing rates down to 2.25%. The two camps each hold their own views: one worries about inflation rebounding, the other is eager to rescue the market.

This week’s data will provide the answer. From Monday to Wednesday, it’s the US-China PMI showdown, and on Friday, China’s CPI/PPI will face off against US non-farm payrolls—whether these data can reverse expectations of rate cuts will determine the direction after January.

If employment continues to worsen and rate cuts come as expected, the value of crypto assets in a flood of liquidity will need to be seriously considered. Bitcoin, as a hedge outside traditional finance, often bears part of the risk transfer demand under such macro expectations.

The storm has not fully unfolded yet, but the window for deployment may be narrowing.