#比特币价格预测 After reading this wave of predictions, honestly, I find the market a bit hard to understand.

On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of the year has dropped to 10%, while Citibank says the target is $143,000 in 12 months, Galaxy predicts $250,000 by the end of 2027, and some are calling for $1.7 million. How big is this gap?—a pessimistic scenario at $60,000, an optimistic one at $250,000, with an imagination space spanning $190,000 in between.

This extreme divergence in forecasts actually reflects the real market situation: no one truly understands how 2026 will unfold. Macro uncertainties are high, policy directions are unclear, and capital is still digesting previous sell-offs. The options market’s symmetric probability distribution (roughly equal chances of dropping to $70,000 and rising to $130,000) is essentially saying "we don’t know either."

From a follow-trade perspective, the most testing factor at this point isn’t the prediction ability of traders but their risk management skills. Those who rely on a single directional bet might be having a tough time now, while traders who can flexibly adjust positions, set clear stop-losses, and implement tiered strategies at different price levels are worth paying attention to.

My approach is: don’t rush to follow accounts shouting big targets; focus on traders who can consistently profit in the recent $60,000–$90,000 range. This price zone is the real test—being able to generate positive returns amid sideways fluctuations shows that the logic holds up. Once the trend is confirmed, then add leverage; controlling risk is the key to long-term survival.