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Prediction markets have recently made headlines. Reports indicate that a certain policy trading account suddenly became active at the end of December, investing over $32,000 in just a few weeks, all betting on the resignation of a political figure in a certain country. This has sparked online discussions and also caught the attention of the U.S. Congress.
Members of Congress are drafting a new legislative proposal with a straightforward core: prohibit federal elected officials, political appointees, and administrative staff from trading contracts related to government policies or political outcomes in prediction markets when they possess insider information. In other words, to block those who exploit their positions for quick profits.
The proposer stated that this bill has actually been in preparation for some time, but the recent "coincidence" has significantly accelerated its progress. Currently, the bill is seeking support from more members of Congress, hoping to build broader consensus in the coming weeks. This also reflects that prediction markets, as an emerging sector, are attracting high-level regulatory attention. Preventing insider trading is crucial for the fairness of the entire market.