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Market Eyes January 2026 Rate Cut Prospects
CME's latest rate cut odds are painting an interesting picture for early 2026. The probability of a rate cut happening by January sits at just 17.2%—a telling sign of where markets are pricing in monetary policy right now.
This data matters for crypto and traditional markets alike. Stock indices (tracked via SPX), Bitcoin positioning, and gold valuations (XAU) tend to react sharply whenever rate expectations shift. Lower odds of near-term cuts could mean tighter conditions persist, which historically affects risk asset appetite.
Keep tabs on this figure—it's one of the cleaner windows into what institutions are actually pricing in for Fed policy. These probabilities shift with economic data, so watch for updates in coming weeks.