The overall rhythm of the 2025 market is channel oscillation, without a clear breakout in a major direction. Therefore, the core trading strategy is very simple—only take two directions, and skip all positions in the middle.

Why is the current bias bullish? This judgment is based on the previous summarized viewpoints. Simply put: after the trend line (purple line) is established through two points, the third or even fourth touch often results in a false breakout. Many beginners misunderstand this, thinking that when the price touches the trend line, it will be suppressed and fall. The actual situation is quite the opposite—the trend line often becomes a short-term contrarian rally aid.

Let's look at two core points.

**Logic of oscillation within a simple channel**

From the middle and upper bands of the channel, the middle band is around 10.8k, and the upper band is approximately 13.1k. These are two key points within the range.

**Two paths after breaking through the channel**

Based on the existing highs and lows in 2025, Fibonacci trend extension is used as a reference. No prediction of subsequent rises or falls, but listing two possible scenarios.

If the final trend is downward: a lower high on the daily chart is needed, along with a significant break below 70,000, to confirm the market has truly turned bearish. But this is too textbook-like, and everyone will participate. The problem is—if a higher high appears (at 1.13), people will collectively turn bullish, reducing alertness to a decline. Looking at the back-and-forth within the channel, only two moves have been completed so far. Will the third include a false breakout to trap the shorts above? The two false breakouts at 12k already caused many to enter short positions.

If the trend is upward: the logic is straightforward. Break through the 0.618 level with momentum and without getting stuck for too long, then push toward 1.13, ultimately forming a new oscillation outside the channel.