Recently, this wave of market rally is seemingly driven by expectations of falling oil prices. Where does this idea come from? A certain leader announced the arrest of Venezuelan government officials, followed by news that US energy companies might return to extract oil there. Market intuition is sharp, immediately linking this chain: US companies enter → increased oil production → global supply becomes ample → oil prices decline → inflation pressures ease → central banks may consider rate cuts → liquidity easing benefits BTC. Why has this logic spread so quickly? Because Bitcoin recently surged past $91,000, with the data in front of everyone, no wonder the market is eager.

But here’s the question—can we really trust this logic? Let’s examine two major flaws. First, the cost of oil extraction in Venezuela isn’t low, so whether US oil companies will truly invest heavily is questionable. Second, from handshake negotiations to actual repair of oil fields and expansion of capacity, this process isn’t short-term. The actual impact on global oil prices within a few months might be much smaller than the market imagines.

So, who are the real beneficiaries? From another perspective, oil profits might just be superficial. The core US strategy is more likely aimed at geopolitical games—especially balancing against a major power. If the situation in Venezuela stabilizes, sanctions could gradually loosen, and the local economy might improve, potentially creating more jobs and income for ordinary workers. Conversely, the old power structures that rely on excessive money printing to survive will likely face even harder times.

In the short term, the actual impact on oil prices is quite limited; it’s more about the market finding a story to hype up. Bitcoin’s recent rise, while possibly benefiting from this expectation, fundamentally depends on how global funds flow and what the Federal Reserve does next. Retail investors should not be led by such news; maintaining rationality in volatile markets is crucial—control your positions as needed, and focus on the long-term direction rather than chasing risks.