New developments in political betting: How can Rubio's presidential dream double within a week

According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the current U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio winning the 2028 presidential election has surged from 4% to 9% within just one week. The story behind this number not only concerns the American political landscape but also reflects market participants’ real-time reactions to geopolitical changes.

Trigger Points for the Surge in Probability

How the Venezuela Incident Changed Rubio’s Political Image

According to the latest news, the direct trigger for this rise in probability was the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro by the U.S. military. Following this event, Trump announced a series of key decisions at a press conference: Rubio was appointed as the governor of Venezuela, overseeing the country’s affairs.

This appointment itself sent an important signal. Rubio is not only the Secretary of State but now also a key operator in U.S. foreign policy implementation. For prediction market participants, this means Rubio’s influence and visibility within the Trump administration have significantly increased.

Accumulation of Political Capital

In U.S. politics, successfully handling major diplomatic incidents often helps politicians accumulate “political capital.” Rubio, previously a Cuban-American politician with a strong background in Latin American policy, now directly leading Venezuela affairs, gains points in several areas:

• Demonstrates a central role within the Trump administration
• Gains practical experience in handling major geopolitical events
• Potentially increases appeal among Latino voters
• Establishes new political achievements within the Republican Party

What Are the Prediction Markets Saying?

The Role of Polymarket

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users can bet on various events. These markets are characterized by participants betting with real funds, so the data often reflects genuine market expectations rather than the emotional fluctuations of polls.

The increase from 4% to 9%, although the absolute probability remains relatively low (Rubio is still not a frontrunner), indicates that market participants are reassessing his campaign prospects. This generally implies:

• The market perceives Rubio’s visibility and political capital to have significantly increased
• His relative position within the Republican primary has improved
• However, his absolute chances of winning still face competition from other candidates

Logic of Market Participants

Participants in prediction markets include political analysts, traders, and political enthusiasts. Their collective decisions reflect that, based on current information, Rubio’s probability of becoming the 2028 presidential candidate has indeed risen. This is not a poll but a probability assessment based on actual financial commitments.

Potential Implications for the Crypto Market

Why Do Political Events Affect Crypto Markets?

Although this is purely a political event, it has indirect links to the crypto market:

• Changes in the U.S. political landscape can influence regulatory policy directions
• Rubio’s rise as a politician may signal subtle shifts in policy tendencies
• Geopolitical events (such as the Venezuela situation) are related to commodity and energy prices, which in turn affect macro market sentiment

Market Participants’ Focus

Crypto market participants are increasingly paying attention to political events and prediction market data, as these factors can influence long-term regulatory environments and macro liquidity. Polymarket itself is a product within the crypto ecosystem, which also underscores the importance of prediction markets within the crypto community.

Summary

The doubling of Rubio’s presidential campaign probability essentially reflects the market’s quantification of his rising political image and influence. The Venezuela incident and his central role in it have given him more political chips in the 2028 presidential race. However, it is important to note that a 9% probability remains relatively low, indicating he still faces strong competition within the Republican primary. This change in numbers reminds us that political events and market expectations are dynamic, and many variables remain for future development.