Recently reviewed the investment progress of mainstream projects in the Perp ecosystem. Several old projects I’ve already participated in include Edge, which I followed early on, and ParaDeX, which was fully deployed by October last year mainly as a defensive position. There are also a few new projects I’ve been looking at recently, and most of the chips allocated to them have already been committed.

The Stand project is quite interesting. Whether it’s ecosystem deposits or trading points, I’ve participated in both. The main logic is basically following the ecosystem development approach of a leading exchange. I’ve mentioned Variational before; it’s one of the targets I’ve been focusing on recently. Since the cycle is long, I’ll just take my time refining it.

I’ve looked at quite a few other projects, but in the end, I didn’t get on board. Last October, I did consider increasing my positions in a liquidity project and another fee-based project, but I simply didn’t have the energy at the time. Looking back now, rather than doing everything in the Perp space, it’s better to focus on 1-2 core projects. My own strategy is to deeply cultivate one key project besides those whose cycles have already ended, and wait for the results on others.

Actually, the more promising opportunities have shifted toward prediction markets. The most promising projects in prediction markets are still the top-tier ones. Entering a project now might be a bit late, but who knows for sure.

These days, during the holiday, I’ve been thinking. I previously thought that Perp was already on the decline, but I later realized that judgment wasn’t very rigorous. The data decline might just be a short-term market downturn, and genuine trading demand will always exist as the market develops. So, prediction markets and Perp are actually evolving in parallel.

However, the ecosystem pattern of Perp is basically set. The leading positions are already clear, and the odds for latecomers are limited. Unless a new project has a strong differentiation advantage or catches the wave of a token issuance boom, there’s only a slim chance.

Looking ahead, the main focus should be on the top prediction market projects, while maintaining a defensive stance in the Perp space. The cost of defense is low, and it can also effectively hedge against potential risks in prediction markets.