The recent statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda have attracted market attention: if economic and inflation data meet expectations, the central bank is prepared to gradually raise interest rates. This is not just a routine policy adjustment but signals a major shift by the world's last major central bank maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy, which is brewing a significant turning point.

Why is this event worth paying attention to? Japan's long-standing negative interest rates and ultra-loose policies have effectively served as a key hub for global capital liquidity. Once this "water tap" begins to tighten, a series of chain reactions could occur.

First is the reverse movement of arbitrage trading. If the yen appreciates, funds that borrowed yen to invest in high-yield global assets will gradually flow back. Second is the transmission of regional sentiment. As a policy shift in Asia's economic powerhouse and liquidity source, it will inevitably influence risk appetite and capital allocation across the region. The third layer involves a direct impact on the crypto market. Highly volatile assets tend to bear the greatest pressure when liquidity expectations change, with mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum potentially being the first to be affected.

The key question now is: how quickly will the rate hikes proceed? When will this potential black swan truly take off? Is the global market's liquidity dividend quietly fading?

The trajectory of assets like BTC, ETH, and BNB largely depends on the synchronized evolution of global central bank policies. In the short term, if arbitrage funds massively flow back into the yen, the crypto market may face liquidity contraction pressures. However, the long-term policy implications and market reactions still require further observation.